Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district, where the seat carries an R+9 partisan voter index and Donald Trump carried it by double digits in the prior presidential cycle. Obernolte's decisive primary victory over limited opposition and the absence of competitive polling have reinforced trader assessments of low Democratic prospects ahead of the November general election. The district's voter registration edge and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the current implied probability. Shifts could occur from a significant national Democratic wave, late scandals affecting the incumbent, or unforeseen turnout surges among Democratic-leaning subgroups, though structural fundamentals limit the likelihood of an upset.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$60,350 交易量
$60,350 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
93%
民主黨
6%
$60,350 交易量
$60,350 交易量
2026-11-02
共和黨
$28,188 交易量
93%
民主黨
$32,161 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district, where the seat carries an R+9 partisan voter index and Donald Trump carried it by double digits in the prior presidential cycle. Obernolte's decisive primary victory over limited opposition and the absence of competitive polling have reinforced trader assessments of low Democratic prospects ahead of the November general election. The district's voter registration edge and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the current implied probability. Shifts could occur from a significant national Democratic wave, late scandals affecting the incumbent, or unforeseen turnout surges among Democratic-leaning subgroups, though structural fundamentals limit the likelihood of an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
交易量
$60,350結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETThis market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district, where the seat carries an R+9 partisan voter index and Donald Trump carried it by double digits in the prior presidential cycle. Obernolte's decisive primary victory over limited opposition and the absence of competitive polling have reinforced trader assessments of low Democratic prospects ahead of the November general election. The district's voter registration edge and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the current implied probability. Shifts could occur from a significant national Democratic wave, late scandals affecting the incumbent, or unforeseen turnout surges among Democratic-leaning subgroups, though structural fundamentals limit the likelihood of an upset.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-23 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$60,350結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETIncumbent Republican Jay Obernolte holds a commanding position in California's 23rd congressional district, where the seat carries an R+9 partisan voter index and Donald Trump carried it by double digits in the prior presidential cycle. Obernolte's decisive primary victory over limited opposition and the absence of competitive polling have reinforced trader assessments of low Democratic prospects ahead of the November general election. The district's voter registration edge and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles underpin the current implied probability. Shifts could occur from a significant national Democratic wave, late scandals affecting the incumbent, or unforeseen turnout surges among Democratic-leaning subgroups, though structural fundamentals limit the likelihood of an upset.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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