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政治·巴西

伯南布哥州州長選舉贏家

icon for 伯南布哥州州長選舉贏家
政治·巴西

伯南布哥州州長選舉贏家

Raquel Lyra 67%

若昂·坎波斯 34%

伊凡·莫拉埃斯 <1%

Polymarket

$32,743 交易量

Raquel Lyra 67%

若昂·坎波斯 34%

伊凡·莫拉埃斯 <1%

Polymarket

$32,743 交易量

icon for Raquel Lyra

Raquel Lyra

$15,129 交易量

67%

若昂·坎波斯

$14,539 交易量

34%

伊凡·莫拉埃斯

$3,075 交易量

<1%

The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking reelection, holds the leading position in trader consensus for the October 4 first-round Pernambuco gubernatorial vote, reflecting recent polling gains and sustained government approval near 68 percent. Latest Quaest and Datafolha surveys from late August show her at 44–47 percent against João Campos (PSB) at 36–40 percent, reversing earlier ties and widening the gap beyond the margin of error after the campaign launch. Campos, the former Recife mayor, draws on President Lula endorsements and PSB organizational strength but trails amid voter focus on state management. Minor candidates including Ivan Moraes (PSOL) register under 2 percent, with the runoff scheduled for October 25 if needed. Traders appear to price in Lyra’s incumbency edge and stable performance metrics ahead of the October timeline.

The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$32,743
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Raquel Lyra (PSD), the incumbent governor seeking reelection, holds the leading position in trader consensus for the October 4 first-round Pernambuco gubernatorial vote, reflecting recent polling gains and sustained government approval near 68 percent. Latest Quaest and Datafolha surveys from late August show her at 44–47 percent against João Campos (PSB) at 36–40 percent, reversing earlier ties and widening the gap beyond the margin of error after the campaign launch. Campos, the former Recife mayor, draws on President Lula endorsements and PSB organizational strength but trails amid voter focus on state management. Minor candidates including Ivan Moraes (PSOL) register under 2 percent, with the runoff scheduled for October 25 if needed. Traders appear to price in Lyra’s incumbency edge and stable performance metrics ahead of the October timeline.

The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$32,743
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Jul 9, 2026, 9:28 PM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...
The Pernambuco gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"伯南布哥州州長選舉贏家" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Raquel Lyra" at 67%, followed by "若昂·坎波斯" at 34%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 67¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "伯南布哥州州長選舉贏家" has generated $32.7K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 9, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "伯南布哥州州長選舉贏家," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "伯南布哥州州長選舉贏家" is "Raquel Lyra" at 67%, meaning the market assigns a 67% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "若昂·坎波斯" at 34%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "伯南布哥州州長選舉贏家" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.