The Federal District Senate race for the two seats up in October 2026 remains highly fragmented, with trader consensus reflecting a tight contest among more than a dozen declared candidates. Recent polling shows no clear frontrunner, as names including Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Leila Barros (PDT), Bia Kicis (PL), Erika Kokay (PT), and Tiago Tarsis cluster in the low-to-mid twenties. Incumbency advantages for sitting senators, PL organizational strength tied to the broader Bolsonaro-aligned bloc, and late-stage party negotiations continue to shape positioning. The first-past-the-post format for each seat, combined with voters casting two ballots, sustains elevated implied probabilities for multiple outcomes until registration closes and final slates solidify. Upcoming debates or major endorsements in the next month could shift momentum among the top contenders.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於蒂亞戈 28%
吉列爾梅·阿莫林教授 23%
塞巴斯蒂昂·科埃略 23%
贊納塔 23%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
蒂亞戈
28%
吉列爾梅·阿莫林教授
23%
塞巴斯蒂昂·科埃略
23%
贊納塔
23%
瑪莉
22%
Guto Felício dos Santos
21%
Avenir Rosa
21%
比亞·基希斯
21%
雷拉·杜·沃雷
21%
大衛·霍恩
21%
Erika Kokay
21%
羅納爾多·豐塞卡
21%
米歇爾·波索納羅
18%
蒂亞戈 28%
吉列爾梅·阿莫林教授 23%
塞巴斯蒂昂·科埃略 23%
贊納塔 23%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
蒂亞戈
$0 交易量
28%
吉列爾梅·阿莫林教授
$0 交易量
23%
塞巴斯蒂昂·科埃略
$0 交易量
23%
贊納塔
$0 交易量
23%
瑪莉
$0 交易量
22%
Guto Felício dos Santos
$0 交易量
21%
Avenir Rosa
$0 交易量
21%
比亞·基希斯
$0 交易量
21%
雷拉·杜·沃雷
$0 交易量
21%
大衛·霍恩
$0 交易量
21%
Erika Kokay
$0 交易量
21%
羅納爾多·豐塞卡
$0 交易量
21%
米歇爾·波索納羅
$0 交易量
18%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Federal District Senate race for the two seats up in October 2026 remains highly fragmented, with trader consensus reflecting a tight contest among more than a dozen declared candidates. Recent polling shows no clear frontrunner, as names including Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Leila Barros (PDT), Bia Kicis (PL), Erika Kokay (PT), and Tiago Tarsis cluster in the low-to-mid twenties. Incumbency advantages for sitting senators, PL organizational strength tied to the broader Bolsonaro-aligned bloc, and late-stage party negotiations continue to shape positioning. The first-past-the-post format for each seat, combined with voters casting two ballots, sustains elevated implied probabilities for multiple outcomes until registration closes and final slates solidify. Upcoming debates or major endorsements in the next month could shift momentum among the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).The Federal District Senate race for the two seats up in October 2026 remains highly fragmented, with trader consensus reflecting a tight contest among more than a dozen declared candidates. Recent polling shows no clear frontrunner, as names including Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Leila Barros (PDT), Bia Kicis (PL), Erika Kokay (PT), and Tiago Tarsis cluster in the low-to-mid twenties. Incumbency advantages for sitting senators, PL organizational strength tied to the broader Bolsonaro-aligned bloc, and late-stage party negotiations continue to shape positioning. The first-past-the-post format for each seat, combined with voters casting two ballots, sustains elevated implied probabilities for multiple outcomes until registration closes and final slates solidify. Upcoming debates or major endorsements in the next month could shift momentum among the top contenders.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for Federal District is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$0結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 5:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Federal District Senate race for the two seats up in October 2026 remains highly fragmented, with trader consensus reflecting a tight contest among more than a dozen declared candidates. Recent polling shows no clear frontrunner, as names including Michelle Bolsonaro (PL), Leila Barros (PDT), Bia Kicis (PL), Erika Kokay (PT), and Tiago Tarsis cluster in the low-to-mid twenties. Incumbency advantages for sitting senators, PL organizational strength tied to the broader Bolsonaro-aligned bloc, and late-stage party negotiations continue to shape positioning. The first-past-the-post format for each seat, combined with voters casting two ballots, sustains elevated implied probabilities for multiple outcomes until registration closes and final slates solidify. Upcoming debates or major endorsements in the next month could shift momentum among the top contenders.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions