Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leads first-round polling at 38–42 percent ahead of the October 4 vote, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party at 28–35 percent as the main right-wing challenger endorsed by his imprisoned father. Recent Quaest and Atlas surveys show Lula holding a narrow or statistical-tie edge in simulated runoffs against Bolsonaro, while Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in low single digits. The official campaign period opened August 16 following candidate registration, with the first televised debate set for August 23. Lula’s position benefits from targeted debt-relief expansions and fuel subsidies, whereas Bolsonaro’s support draws from consolidated opposition voters in a polarized field where only the top two advance to the October 25 runoff. Trader consensus reflects these structural and polling dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$475,220 交易量
2026-10-04
路易斯·伊納西奧·魯拉·達席爾瓦
97%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅
90%
雷南·桑托斯
7%
羅梅烏·澤馬
2%
蜜雪兒·波索納羅
1%
羅納多·卡亞多
1%
塔爾西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯
1%
賈伊爾·博爾索納羅
1%
費爾南多·哈達德
1%
$475,220 交易量
路易斯·伊納西奧·魯拉·達席爾瓦
$218,672 交易量
97%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅
$47,095 交易量
90%
雷南·桑托斯
$11,342 交易量
7%
羅梅烏·澤馬
$610 交易量
2%
蜜雪兒·波索納羅
$34,442 交易量
1%
羅納多·卡亞多
$698 交易量
1%
塔爾西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯
$81,768 交易量
1%
賈伊爾·博爾索納羅
$15,629 交易量
1%
費爾南多·哈達德
$64,965 交易量
1%
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leads first-round polling at 38–42 percent ahead of the October 4 vote, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party at 28–35 percent as the main right-wing challenger endorsed by his imprisoned father. Recent Quaest and Atlas surveys show Lula holding a narrow or statistical-tie edge in simulated runoffs against Bolsonaro, while Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in low single digits. The official campaign period opened August 16 following candidate registration, with the first televised debate set for August 23. Lula’s position benefits from targeted debt-relief expansions and fuel subsidies, whereas Bolsonaro’s support draws from consolidated opposition voters in a polarized field where only the top two advance to the October 25 runoff. Trader consensus reflects these structural and polling dynamics.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ET
交易量
$475,220結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leads first-round polling at 38–42 percent ahead of the October 4 vote, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party at 28–35 percent as the main right-wing challenger endorsed by his imprisoned father. Recent Quaest and Atlas surveys show Lula holding a narrow or statistical-tie edge in simulated runoffs against Bolsonaro, while Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in low single digits. The official campaign period opened August 16 following candidate registration, with the first televised debate set for August 23. Lula’s position benefits from targeted debt-relief expansions and fuel subsidies, whereas Bolsonaro’s support draws from consolidated opposition voters in a polarized field where only the top two advance to the October 25 runoff. Trader consensus reflects these structural and polling dynamics.
General elections are scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. If no candidate wins outright in the first round, the top two candidates proceed to a runoff.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed candidate advances to Brazil's presidential runoff election or otherwise wins outright in the first round. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If the president is decided in the first round of the election but the listed candidate is not the winner or the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$475,220結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Sep 18, 2025, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva of the Workers’ Party leads first-round polling at 38–42 percent ahead of the October 4 vote, with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro of the Liberal Party at 28–35 percent as the main right-wing challenger endorsed by his imprisoned father. Recent Quaest and Atlas surveys show Lula holding a narrow or statistical-tie edge in simulated runoffs against Bolsonaro, while Ronaldo Caiado, Romeu Zema, and Renan Santos remain in low single digits. The official campaign period opened August 16 following candidate registration, with the first televised debate set for August 23. Lula’s position benefits from targeted debt-relief expansions and fuel subsidies, whereas Bolsonaro’s support draws from consolidated opposition voters in a polarized field where only the top two advance to the October 25 runoff. Trader consensus reflects these structural and polling dynamics.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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