Chen Ting-fei holds a commanding lead in the Tainan mayoral race due to the Democratic Progressive Party’s long-standing dominance in the city, her victory in the January 2026 DPP primary over Lin Chun-hsien, and consistent polling advantages of 10–37 points over Kuomintang nominee Hsieh Lung-chieh in the weeks before the November 28 vote. Tainan has not elected a KMT mayor since 2010, and Chen’s prior electoral successes against Hsieh reinforce trader assessments reflected in current pricing. Minor candidates including Hsiao Lin-hung and Yeh Jen-wen register negligible support. Late developments such as the televised policy sessions or shifts in undecided voters could narrow margins, though substantial barriers remain given the scale of the existing gap and structural party advantages.