Lula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará for first place in the October 4 first round, backed by consistent polling that places him at 54-59% in the state while the nearest challenger trails by roughly 30 points. This reflects the Northeast region's longstanding electoral patterns favoring the incumbent PT candidate, combined with stable government approval ratings around 63% locally. Recent surveys from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data show minimal movement in the past month, with minor gains for Flávio Bolsonaro failing to close the gap. Trader consensus at 96.5% for Lula aligns with these trends, though an unforeseen national surge by opposition figures, unusually high abstention among core supporters, or late-breaking developments could narrow the margin in the final weeks before voting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於魯拉 96.4%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅 1.8%
埃德米爾松·科斯塔 <1%
Samara <1%
$17,612 交易量
$17,612 交易量
2026-10-04
魯拉
96%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅
2%
埃德米爾松·科斯塔
1%
Samara
<1%
羅納爾多·凱亞多
<1%
克拉莉安娜·巴拉奧
<1%
Pablo Marçal
<1%
獸醫威爾遜·格拉西
<1%
澤馬
<1%
作家奧古斯托·庫里
<1%
赫茲·迪亞斯
<1%
雷南·桑托斯
<1%
鲁伊·科斯塔·皮门塔
<1%
魯拉 96.4%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅 1.8%
埃德米爾松·科斯塔 <1%
Samara <1%
$17,612 交易量
$17,612 交易量
2026-10-04
魯拉
$8,134 交易量
96%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅
$1,228 交易量
2%
埃德米爾松·科斯塔
$755 交易量
1%
Samara
$714 交易量
<1%
羅納爾多·凱亞多
$919 交易量
<1%
克拉莉安娜·巴拉奧
$765 交易量
<1%
Pablo Marçal
$755 交易量
<1%
獸醫威爾遜·格拉西
$625 交易量
<1%
澤馬
$815 交易量
<1%
作家奧古斯托·庫里
$736 交易量
<1%
赫茲·迪亞斯
$701 交易量
<1%
雷南·桑托斯
$764 交易量
<1%
鲁伊·科斯塔·皮门塔
$702 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará for first place in the October 4 first round, backed by consistent polling that places him at 54-59% in the state while the nearest challenger trails by roughly 30 points. This reflects the Northeast region's longstanding electoral patterns favoring the incumbent PT candidate, combined with stable government approval ratings around 63% locally. Recent surveys from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data show minimal movement in the past month, with minor gains for Flávio Bolsonaro failing to close the gap. Trader consensus at 96.5% for Lula aligns with these trends, though an unforeseen national surge by opposition figures, unusually high abstention among core supporters, or late-breaking developments could narrow the margin in the final weeks before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ET
交易量
$17,612結束日期
2027-07-01市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Lula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará for first place in the October 4 first round, backed by consistent polling that places him at 54-59% in the state while the nearest challenger trails by roughly 30 points. This reflects the Northeast region's longstanding electoral patterns favoring the incumbent PT candidate, combined with stable government approval ratings around 63% locally. Recent surveys from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data show minimal movement in the past month, with minor gains for Flávio Bolsonaro failing to close the gap. Trader consensus at 96.5% for Lula aligns with these trends, though an unforeseen national surge by opposition figures, unusually high abstention among core supporters, or late-breaking developments could narrow the margin in the final weeks before voting.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Ceará, Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the listed candidate who receives the most valid votes in the first round of this election from Ceará.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won in Ceará. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$17,612結束日期
2027-07-01市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 6:26 AM ETLula maintains a commanding lead in Ceará for first place in the October 4 first round, backed by consistent polling that places him at 54-59% in the state while the nearest challenger trails by roughly 30 points. This reflects the Northeast region's longstanding electoral patterns favoring the incumbent PT candidate, combined with stable government approval ratings around 63% locally. Recent surveys from Datafolha and Real Time Big Data show minimal movement in the past month, with minor gains for Flávio Bolsonaro failing to close the gap. Trader consensus at 96.5% for Lula aligns with these trends, though an unforeseen national surge by opposition figures, unusually high abstention among core supporters, or late-breaking developments could narrow the margin in the final weeks before voting.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions