Recent polling from late September shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–5 points in first-round scenarios, with both candidates in the mid-to-high 30s and fragmented support for others. This narrow gap, within typical margins of error across multiple surveys, aligns with trader consensus favoring a Lula victory margin under 5% ahead of the October 4 vote. Polarization over economic conditions, security, and corruption investigations involving figures tied to both campaigns has kept the contest competitive without decisive shifts. A first-round majority remains unlikely, increasing runoff prospects on October 25 and reinforcing the emphasis on slim margins in current pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5% 51%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5% 30.0%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10% 12%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10% 8.2%
$549,188 交易量
$549,188 交易量
2026-10-03
魯拉·達席爾瓦15%+
<1%
盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15%
2%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10%
12%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5%
51%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅領先10%+
1%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10%
8%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5%
30%
雷南·桑托斯勝利
<1%
塔西西歐·德·弗雷塔斯勝利
<1%
拉蒂尼奧·儒尼奧爾勝選
<1%
其他
<1%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5% 51%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5% 30.0%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10% 12%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10% 8.2%
$549,188 交易量
$549,188 交易量
2026-10-03
魯拉·達席爾瓦15%+
$23,615 交易量
<1%
盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15%
$51,699 交易量
2%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10%
$54,195 交易量
12%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5%
$58,229 交易量
51%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅領先10%+
$30,596 交易量
1%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10%
$35,357 交易量
8%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5%
$41,032 交易量
30%
雷南·桑托斯勝利
$221,710 交易量
<1%
塔西西歐·德·弗雷塔斯勝利
$10,653 交易量
<1%
拉蒂尼奧·儒尼奧爾勝選
$10,076 交易量
<1%
其他
$12,026 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from late September shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–5 points in first-round scenarios, with both candidates in the mid-to-high 30s and fragmented support for others. This narrow gap, within typical margins of error across multiple surveys, aligns with trader consensus favoring a Lula victory margin under 5% ahead of the October 4 vote. Polarization over economic conditions, security, and corruption investigations involving figures tied to both campaigns has kept the contest competitive without decisive shifts. A first-round majority remains unlikely, increasing runoff prospects on October 25 and reinforcing the emphasis on slim margins in current pricing.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$549,188結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from late September shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–5 points in first-round scenarios, with both candidates in the mid-to-high 30s and fragmented support for others. This narrow gap, within typical margins of error across multiple surveys, aligns with trader consensus favoring a Lula victory margin under 5% ahead of the October 4 vote. Polarization over economic conditions, security, and corruption investigations involving figures tied to both campaigns has kept the contest competitive without decisive shifts. A first-round majority remains unlikely, increasing runoff prospects on October 25 and reinforcing the emphasis on slim margins in current pricing.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$549,188結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETRecent polling from late September shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by 3–5 points in first-round scenarios, with both candidates in the mid-to-high 30s and fragmented support for others. This narrow gap, within typical margins of error across multiple surveys, aligns with trader consensus favoring a Lula victory margin under 5% ahead of the October 4 vote. Polarization over economic conditions, security, and corruption investigations involving figures tied to both campaigns has kept the contest competitive without decisive shifts. A first-round majority remains unlikely, increasing runoff prospects on October 25 and reinforcing the emphasis on slim margins in current pricing.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions