Aleksandar Vučić’s decision to resign as president in late September and lead the rebranded “Aleksandar Vučić – United Serbia” list has positioned his alliance as the frontrunner in the October 25 snap parliamentary election. The move allows him to seek the prime minister role if his Serbian Progressive Party coalition secures the most seats. Ongoing student-led protests, sparked by the 2024 Novi Sad canopy collapse that killed 16, have fueled the main opposition challenge from the “Student List – Students Win,” which trails in recent polling but draws support from anti-government demonstrators. Smaller lists, including those led by Ivica Dačić and various ethnic or pro-European groups, register minimal support. The election timing, called to address political tensions ahead of Expo 2027, explains why traders assign the highest implied probability to Vučić’s list while viewing the outcome as competitive.