Recent polling averages place Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s bloc of parties at roughly 49–52 seats in the 120-seat Knesset ahead of the October 27 election, while the main opposition bloc led by parties including Yashar and Together sits near 50–54 seats. Both totals remain short of the 61 seats required for a stable majority coalition, a pattern that has held steady since the Knesset dissolved in July. Arab-list parties account for most of the remaining seats but face reluctance from Zionist parties on both sides to join governing arrangements. These results reflect entrenched bloc divisions that have changed little since the October 2023 attacks, with fresh polling releases in early October showing only marginal shifts and no bloc crossing the threshold. Trader pricing on the “No” outcome at 76% aligns with this consistent shortfall across multiple surveys.