Iliana Iotova, the incumbent president running as an independent with Kiril Valchev, holds a commanding lead in recent polls ahead of the October 25 first-round vote, reflecting broad support from Progressive Bulgaria, the Bulgarian Socialist Party, and other groups. Her position benefits from name recognition built during prior vice-presidential and brief presidential service, plus a fragmented field of 27 tickets. Andrey Gyurov, a former caretaker prime minister backed by reformist parties, trails significantly in second place but could advance to a potential November 1 runoff if no candidate secures a majority. Low projected turnout near 40 percent and undecided voters around 20 percent add uncertainty, though consistent survey gaps underscore trader consensus on Iotova’s strong position entering the final weeks.