Lorenzo Pazolini (Republicanos) advanced from the October 4 first round with 49.65% of valid votes against incumbent Ricardo Ferraço (MDB) at 34.06%, setting up the October 25 runoff after neither reached a majority. Pazolini’s strong showing, driven by his base in Vitória as former mayor and right-wing alliances including PL support, shifted trader expectations toward a Pazolini win despite pre-round polls showing Ferraço competitive or ahead. Ferraço, who assumed office in April after Renato Casagrande’s resignation, has pledged intensive campaigning focused on record comparisons and voter outreach. With roughly 344,000 votes from eliminated candidates (primarily PT’s Helder Salomão at 15.32%) now in play, the market prices reflect uncertainty over final margins in the brief campaign window, favoring Pazolini leads of 5–20 points while assigning low probability to an upset.