Recent polling shows a tight four-way contest among Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and the Greens ahead of the September 20 vote, with the SPD trailing and smaller parties like BSW and FDP likely excluded. Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system sets a 130-seat baseline across 78 constituencies and 12 districts, but overhang and leveling mandates expand the chamber when parties secure more direct wins than their list shares warrant. The 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats after CDU constituency strength triggered substantial compensation. Current vote fragmentation and district-level dynamics raise the prospect of comparable or greater expansion, as traders price in the risk of additional overhang from competitive direct races. No major late developments have altered this structural outlook.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於158–162 13%
153–157 10.9%
148–152 5.5%
143–147 3.9%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
<143
3%
143–147
8%
148–152
5%
153–157
11%
158–162
28%
163+
52%
158–162 13%
153–157 10.9%
148–152 5.5%
143–147 3.9%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
<143
$2,257 交易量
3%
143–147
$1,889 交易量
8%
148–152
$671 交易量
5%
153–157
$777 交易量
11%
158–162
$1,341 交易量
28%
163+
$2,024 交易量
52%
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows a tight four-way contest among Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and the Greens ahead of the September 20 vote, with the SPD trailing and smaller parties like BSW and FDP likely excluded. Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system sets a 130-seat baseline across 78 constituencies and 12 districts, but overhang and leveling mandates expand the chamber when parties secure more direct wins than their list shares warrant. The 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats after CDU constituency strength triggered substantial compensation. Current vote fragmentation and district-level dynamics raise the prospect of comparable or greater expansion, as traders price in the risk of additional overhang from competitive direct races. No major late developments have altered this structural outlook.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ET
交易量
$8,960結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETElections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent polling shows a tight four-way contest among Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and the Greens ahead of the September 20 vote, with the SPD trailing and smaller parties like BSW and FDP likely excluded. Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system sets a 130-seat baseline across 78 constituencies and 12 districts, but overhang and leveling mandates expand the chamber when parties secure more direct wins than their list shares warrant. The 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats after CDU constituency strength triggered substantial compensation. Current vote fragmentation and district-level dynamics raise the prospect of comparable or greater expansion, as traders price in the risk of additional overhang from competitive direct races. No major late developments have altered this structural outlook.
Elections to the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin (Berlin House of Representatives) are scheduled to be held on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats in the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin as a result of this election, including any overhang seats (Überhangmandate) and compensatory seats (Ausgleichsmandate).
The Abgeordnetenhaus has a statutory minimum of 130 seats, of which 78 are elected in single-member constituencies and the remainder allocated from party lists. Where a party wins more constituency seats than its share of valid second votes entitles it to, it retains those seats as overhang seats and other parties in the Abgeordnetenhaus receive compensatory seats, increasing the total size of the chamber.
This market will resolve according to the total number of seats allocated in the official final results. Seats subsequently vacated, or changes arising from members leaving or changing party, will not be considered.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official results published by the Berlin State Returning Officer (Landeswahlleiterin für Berlin, https://www.wahlen-berlin.de/). However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$8,960結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 6:48 PM ETRecent polling shows a tight four-way contest among Die Linke, CDU, AfD, and the Greens ahead of the September 20 vote, with the SPD trailing and smaller parties like BSW and FDP likely excluded. Berlin’s mixed-member proportional system sets a 130-seat baseline across 78 constituencies and 12 districts, but overhang and leveling mandates expand the chamber when parties secure more direct wins than their list shares warrant. The 2023 repeat election produced 159 seats after CDU constituency strength triggered substantial compensation. Current vote fragmentation and district-level dynamics raise the prospect of comparable or greater expansion, as traders price in the risk of additional overhang from competitive direct races. No major late developments have altered this structural outlook.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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Frequently Asked Questions