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icon for 柏林州選舉投票勝利邊際
世界·柏林

柏林州選舉投票勝利邊際

icon for 柏林州選舉投票勝利邊際
世界·柏林

柏林州選舉投票勝利邊際

Linke 0-2% 42%

Linke 2-5% 26%

AfD 0-2% 23%

AfD 2-5% 22%

Polymarket
最新

Linke 0-2% 42%

Linke 2-5% 26%

AfD 0-2% 23%

AfD 2-5% 22%

Polymarket
最新

Linke 0-2%

$20 交易量

42%

Linke 2-5%

$0 交易量

26%

Linke 5-10%

$0 交易量

17%

Linke 10%以上

$0 交易量

16%

基民盟 0-2%

$0 交易量

19%

基民盟2-5%

$0 交易量

19%

基民盟 5-10%

$0 交易量

7%

基民盟10%+

$0 交易量

7%

AfD 0-2%

$0 交易量

23%

AfD 2-5%

$0 交易量

22%

AfD 5%以上

$0 交易量

18%

其他政黨勝出

$0 交易量

9%

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls from mid-September 2026 show Die Linke and the CDU in a near-tie for first place at 20-23%, with AfD close behind at 17-18% and the Greens and SPD trailing further. This narrow contest among the top contenders underpins trader emphasis on slim victory margins of 0-2% or 2-5% for Linke or AfD. The CDU's leadership transition after Kai Wegner's withdrawal, combined with Linke's sustained gains since the 2023 repeat election, has kept the race volatile heading into the September 20 vote. Fragmented results and coalition math further support the pricing of small edges rather than decisive leads for any single party.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".

If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$20
結束日期
2026-09-20
市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Recent polls from mid-September 2026 show Die Linke and the CDU in a near-tie for first place at 20-23%, with AfD close behind at 17-18% and the Greens and SPD trailing further. This narrow contest among the top contenders underpins trader emphasis on slim victory margins of 0-2% or 2-5% for Linke or AfD. The CDU's leadership transition after Kai Wegner's withdrawal, combined with Linke's sustained gains since the 2023 repeat election, has kept the race volatile heading into the September 20 vote. Fragmented results and coalition math further support the pricing of small edges rather than decisive leads for any single party.

Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election.

Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".

If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins".

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties in the specified election. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received by the first-place and second-place parties. Percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid second votes each of the top two parties receives by the total number of valid second votes cast in the election. Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the named party. Vote percentages attributed to other parties will not count. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If a party other than Linke, CDU, or AfD receives the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". If two or more parties tie for the most valid second votes, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party whose listed abbreviation comes first in alphabetical order. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Another party wins". This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/).
交易量
$20
結束日期
2026-09-20
市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 10:21 PM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...

相關

icon for AfD 是否會贏得所有有效第二票的 17% 至 20%？

AfD 是否會贏得所有有效第二票的 17% 至 20%？

60%
是
icon for 基民盟（CDU）在所有有效的第二選票中會贏得20%至23%之間的得票率嗎？

基民盟（CDU）在所有有效的第二選票中會贏得20%至23%之間的得票率嗎？

47%
是
icon for 社民黨獲得的所有有效第二票是否會低於10%？

社民黨獲得的所有有效第二票是否會低於10%？

55%
是

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"柏林州選舉投票勝利邊際" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 12 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Linke 0-2%" at 42%, followed by "Linke 2-5%" at 26%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 42¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"柏林州選舉投票勝利邊際" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 15, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "柏林州選舉投票勝利邊際," browse the 12 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "柏林州選舉投票勝利邊際" is "Linke 0-2%" at 42%, meaning the market assigns a 42% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Linke 2-5%" at 26%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "柏林州選舉投票勝利邊際" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.