Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a fragmented contest with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13% and 20%, producing frequent shifts in projected seat order. This narrow spread among mid-tier parties sustains elevated trader probabilities around 50% for several outcomes in the 4th-place market, while larger parties like AfD and SPD carry lower implied chances of landing exactly fourth. Late-summer surveys from INSA and Civey confirm ongoing volatility without a decisive breakaway, underscoring how small turnout or preference swings among urban voters could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於綠黨 49%
AfD 26%
社民黨 18%
Linke 16%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
綠黨
49%
AfD
26%
社民黨
18%
Linke
16%
BSW
14%
基民盟
15%
FDP
17%
FW
10%
綠黨 49%
AfD 26%
社民黨 18%
Linke 16%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
綠黨
$1,357 交易量
49%
AfD
$20 交易量
26%
社民黨
$20 交易量
18%
Linke
$20 交易量
16%
BSW
$20 交易量
14%
基民盟
$20 交易量
15%
FDP
$61 交易量
17%
FW
$68 交易量
10%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a fragmented contest with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13% and 20%, producing frequent shifts in projected seat order. This narrow spread among mid-tier parties sustains elevated trader probabilities around 50% for several outcomes in the 4th-place market, while larger parties like AfD and SPD carry lower implied chances of landing exactly fourth. Late-summer surveys from INSA and Civey confirm ongoing volatility without a decisive breakaway, underscoring how small turnout or preference swings among urban voters could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ET
交易量
$1,586結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a fragmented contest with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13% and 20%, producing frequent shifts in projected seat order. This narrow spread among mid-tier parties sustains elevated trader probabilities around 50% for several outcomes in the 4th-place market, while larger parties like AfD and SPD carry lower implied chances of landing exactly fourth. Late-summer surveys from INSA and Civey confirm ongoing volatility without a decisive breakaway, underscoring how small turnout or preference swings among urban voters could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
This market will resolve to the political party that wins the fourth-greatest number of seats in the formal deliberative assembly of Berlin (Abgeordnetenhaus) as a result of this election.
If voting in the Berlin election for the Abgeordnetenhaus does not occur by December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid second votes (Zweitstimme) received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party names/abbreviations. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the fourth finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition.
This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Election Office of Berlin (Landeswahlleiter Berlin https://www.berlin.de/wahlen/)
交易量
$1,586結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 2:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for Berlin's September 20 state election shows a fragmented contest with Die Linke, CDU, AfD, Grüne, and SPD clustered between roughly 13% and 20%, producing frequent shifts in projected seat order. This narrow spread among mid-tier parties sustains elevated trader probabilities around 50% for several outcomes in the 4th-place market, while larger parties like AfD and SPD carry lower implied chances of landing exactly fourth. Late-summer surveys from INSA and Civey confirm ongoing volatility without a decisive breakaway, underscoring how small turnout or preference swings among urban voters could reorder the middle of the field before election day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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