The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election will determine the next state government amid a fragmented parliament, with recent polls showing Die Linke leading or tied near 19-22 percent, followed closely by the CDU at 18-20 percent, AfD at 16-18 percent, Greens at 16-17 percent, and SPD at 12-15 percent, while BSW and FDP remain below the threshold. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under former mayor Kai Wegner lost ground after his withdrawal as lead candidate over crisis management criticism, with Stefan Evers now heading the CDU ticket. No two-party combination appears likely to secure a majority, directing attention to potential three-party options such as Linke-Grüne-SPD or CDU-Grüne-SPD. Trader focus centers on post-election coalition negotiations and which parties can assemble a workable majority in the 130-seat chamber.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於最新
2026-12-31
綠黨
90%
SPD
87%
Linke
75%
基民盟
36%
FDP
4%
FW
4%
BSW
4%
AfD
2%
$4,381 交易量
綠黨
$98 交易量
90%
SPD
$177 交易量
87%
Linke
$833 交易量
75%
基民盟
$853 交易量
36%
FDP
$210 交易量
4%
FW
$661 交易量
4%
BSW
$280 交易量
4%
AfD
$1,269 交易量
2%
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election will determine the next state government amid a fragmented parliament, with recent polls showing Die Linke leading or tied near 19-22 percent, followed closely by the CDU at 18-20 percent, AfD at 16-18 percent, Greens at 16-17 percent, and SPD at 12-15 percent, while BSW and FDP remain below the threshold. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under former mayor Kai Wegner lost ground after his withdrawal as lead candidate over crisis management criticism, with Stefan Evers now heading the CDU ticket. No two-party combination appears likely to secure a majority, directing attention to potential three-party options such as Linke-Grüne-SPD or CDU-Grüne-SPD. Trader focus centers on post-election coalition negotiations and which parties can assemble a workable majority in the 130-seat chamber.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
市場開放時間： Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ET
交易量
$4,381結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETParliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.The September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election will determine the next state government amid a fragmented parliament, with recent polls showing Die Linke leading or tied near 19-22 percent, followed closely by the CDU at 18-20 percent, AfD at 16-18 percent, Greens at 16-17 percent, and SPD at 12-15 percent, while BSW and FDP remain below the threshold. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under former mayor Kai Wegner lost ground after his withdrawal as lead candidate over crisis management criticism, with Stefan Evers now heading the CDU ticket. No two-party combination appears likely to secure a majority, directing attention to potential three-party options such as Linke-Grüne-SPD or CDU-Grüne-SPD. Trader focus centers on post-election coalition negotiations and which parties can assemble a workable majority in the 130-seat chamber.
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Berlin state government formed after the 2026 Berlin state election. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve once the composition of the first Berlin state government following the 2026 state election is officially confirmed and that government has formally taken office.
The state government is considered formed when the newly elected Abgeordnetenhaus elects the Governing Mayor. A party is considered part of the state government if it provides at least one Senator, including the Governing Mayor. Parties that merely support the government (e.g., through confidence-and-supply arrangements, parliamentary support agreements, or similar) without holding a Senator post will not qualify.
If no government is formed, or the results are not known definitively by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve based on a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based on official information from the Senate of Berlin and the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin.
交易量
$4,381結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Aug 20, 2026, 1:42 PM ETThe September 20, 2026, Berlin Abgeordnetenhaus election will determine the next state government amid a fragmented parliament, with recent polls showing Die Linke leading or tied near 19-22 percent, followed closely by the CDU at 18-20 percent, AfD at 16-18 percent, Greens at 16-17 percent, and SPD at 12-15 percent, while BSW and FDP remain below the threshold. The incumbent CDU-SPD coalition under former mayor Kai Wegner lost ground after his withdrawal as lead candidate over crisis management criticism, with Stefan Evers now heading the CDU ticket. No two-party combination appears likely to secure a majority, directing attention to potential three-party options such as Linke-Grüne-SPD or CDU-Grüne-SPD. Trader focus centers on post-election coalition negotiations and which parties can assemble a workable majority in the 130-seat chamber.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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