The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition, formed after the February 2025 election under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has maintained its parliamentary majority through mid-2026 despite internal divisions over tax, welfare, and economic reforms. Recent cabinet-level agreements in July 2026 on a reform package to revive growth have reduced immediate fracture risks, while both parties publicly rule out early elections and prioritize completing the legislative term. Traders price an 87.5% chance the alliance holds past 2026 because historical grand-coalition experience, shared institutional incentives, and the absence of viable alternative majorities outweigh polling weakness and AfD gains. Scheduled votes on the 2027 budget and ongoing coalition committee talks represent the nearest near-term tests.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
13% 機率
$71,560 交易量
$71,560 交易量
2026-12-31
是
13% 機率
$71,560 交易量
$71,560 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition, formed after the February 2025 election under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has maintained its parliamentary majority through mid-2026 despite internal divisions over tax, welfare, and economic reforms. Recent cabinet-level agreements in July 2026 on a reform package to revive growth have reduced immediate fracture risks, while both parties publicly rule out early elections and prioritize completing the legislative term. Traders price an 87.5% chance the alliance holds past 2026 because historical grand-coalition experience, shared institutional incentives, and the absence of viable alternative majorities outweigh polling weakness and AfD gains. Scheduled votes on the 2027 budget and ongoing coalition committee talks represent the nearest near-term tests.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ET
交易量
$71,560結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition, formed after the February 2025 election under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has maintained its parliamentary majority through mid-2026 despite internal divisions over tax, welfare, and economic reforms. Recent cabinet-level agreements in July 2026 on a reform package to revive growth have reduced immediate fracture risks, while both parties publicly rule out early elections and prioritize completing the legislative term. Traders price an 87.5% chance the alliance holds past 2026 because historical grand-coalition experience, shared institutional incentives, and the absence of viable alternative majorities outweigh polling weakness and AfD gains. Scheduled votes on the 2027 budget and ongoing coalition committee talks represent the nearest near-term tests.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the governing coalition consisting of CDU/CSU and SPD breaks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM CET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
For the purposes of this market, the coalition is considered broken if either CDU/CSU or SPD ceases to be a coalition partner in the federal government.
A coalition break may be evidenced by:
– a formal withdrawal from the coalition,
– the resignation or dismissal of all ministers from one party,
– or the appointment of a new federal government.
If all ministers affiliated with one of the coalition parties resign or are dismissed, this may signal that party’s withdrawal from the coalition, even if one or more individuals remain in office as independents or continue without representing the party.
If the coalition breaks and the sitting Chancellor remains in office with a new coalition or as a minority government, this market will still resolve to “Yes.”
The break date is the date on which it becomes officially confirmed that the coalition has broken; mere reports of negotiations, speculation, or indications of an impending break will not suffice.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the German government; however, a consensus of credible reporting from major reputable news outlets may also be used.
交易量
$71,560結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 3, 2025, 12:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The CDU/CSU–SPD grand coalition, formed after the February 2025 election under Chancellor Friedrich Merz, has maintained its parliamentary majority through mid-2026 despite internal divisions over tax, welfare, and economic reforms. Recent cabinet-level agreements in July 2026 on a reform package to revive growth have reduced immediate fracture risks, while both parties publicly rule out early elections and prioritize completing the legislative term. Traders price an 87.5% chance the alliance holds past 2026 because historical grand-coalition experience, shared institutional incentives, and the absence of viable alternative majorities outweigh polling weakness and AfD gains. Scheduled votes on the 2027 budget and ongoing coalition committee talks represent the nearest near-term tests.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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