The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, features Green Party leader Zack Polanski against Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali in a contest widely viewed as a head-to-head. Recent May 2026 local results in Camden wards showed Green gains to ten councillors, building on 2024 general election third-place strength and creating visible momentum through intensive doorstep and leafleting efforts. Poll projections place the Greens in the mid-to-high 30s, close enough to Labour’s expected low 40s to sustain tight trading bands around 25-40 percent. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over turnout among progressive voters, the impact of Polanski’s national profile versus Labour’s local incumbency advantages, and whether fragmented opposition votes consolidate. Further campaign events, national party polling shifts, or late mobilization on housing and environmental issues could widen the outcome range before polling day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於35-40% 35%
30-35% 27%
25-30% 26%
低於20% 10%
最新
最新
2026-10-08
低於20%
10%
20-25%
7%
25-30%
26%
30-35%
27%
35-40%
35%
40%以上
7%
35-40% 35%
30-35% 27%
25-30% 26%
低於20% 10%
最新
最新
2026-10-08
低於20%
$534 交易量
10%
20-25%
$395 交易量
7%
25-30%
$554 交易量
26%
30-35%
$438 交易量
27%
35-40%
$754 交易量
35%
40%以上
$314 交易量
7%
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, features Green Party leader Zack Polanski against Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali in a contest widely viewed as a head-to-head. Recent May 2026 local results in Camden wards showed Green gains to ten councillors, building on 2024 general election third-place strength and creating visible momentum through intensive doorstep and leafleting efforts. Poll projections place the Greens in the mid-to-high 30s, close enough to Labour’s expected low 40s to sustain tight trading bands around 25-40 percent. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over turnout among progressive voters, the impact of Polanski’s national profile versus Labour’s local incumbency advantages, and whether fragmented opposition votes consolidate. Further campaign events, national party polling shifts, or late mobilization on housing and environmental issues could widen the outcome range before polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
市場開放時間： Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ET
交易量
$2,989結束日期
2026-10-08市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETA by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).The Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, features Green Party leader Zack Polanski against Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali in a contest widely viewed as a head-to-head. Recent May 2026 local results in Camden wards showed Green gains to ten councillors, building on 2024 general election third-place strength and creating visible momentum through intensive doorstep and leafleting efforts. Poll projections place the Greens in the mid-to-high 30s, close enough to Labour’s expected low 40s to sustain tight trading bands around 25-40 percent. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over turnout among progressive voters, the impact of Polanski’s national profile versus Labour’s local incumbency advantages, and whether fragmented opposition votes consolidate. Further campaign events, national party polling shifts, or late mobilization on housing and environmental issues could widen the outcome range before polling day.
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Holborn and St Pancras is scheduled to be held on October 8, 2026, following the resignation of incumbent Sir Keir Starmer.
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate in the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
The percentage will be measured as the number of valid votes received by the Green Party candidate divided by the total number of valid votes cast in the by-election.
Valid vote percentages will be counted only where the official results attribute them to the candidate standing for the Green Party. Votes attributed to other candidates or party designations will not count, regardless of endorsements or electoral cooperation.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of this by-election are not definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the results of this by-election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as published by Camden Council (https://www.camden.gov.uk/).
交易量
$2,989結束日期
2026-10-08市場開放時間
Sep 14, 2026, 6:50 PM ETThe Holborn and St Pancras by-election on 8 October, triggered by Keir Starmer’s resignation, features Green Party leader Zack Polanski against Labour’s Sagal Abdi-Wali in a contest widely viewed as a head-to-head. Recent May 2026 local results in Camden wards showed Green gains to ten councillors, building on 2024 general election third-place strength and creating visible momentum through intensive doorstep and leafleting efforts. Poll projections place the Greens in the mid-to-high 30s, close enough to Labour’s expected low 40s to sustain tight trading bands around 25-40 percent. Trader consensus reflects uncertainty over turnout among progressive voters, the impact of Polanski’s national profile versus Labour’s local incumbency advantages, and whether fragmented opposition votes consolidate. Further campaign events, national party polling shifts, or late mobilization on housing and environmental issues could widen the outcome range before polling day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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