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政治·梅克菲爾德

奈傑爾·法拉奇（ Nigel Farage ）在2026年退出英國改革領袖行列

icon for 奈傑爾·法拉奇（ Nigel Farage ）在2026年退出英國改革領袖行列
政治·梅克菲爾德

奈傑爾·法拉奇（ Nigel Farage ）在2026年退出英國改革領袖行列

是

14% 機率
Polymarket
最新

是

14% 機率
Polymarket
最新
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Reform UK's strong performance in the May 2026 local elections, where the party gained over 1,400 seats and outperformed expectations in former Labour strongholds, has reinforced Nigel Farage's position as leader. He publicly described the results as a historic shift, and the party website continues to list him in the role alongside a frontbench team formed in February 2026. A June 2026 survey of Reform members showed four in five favoring his continued leadership, even absent a general election win. Recent scrutiny over a £5 million donor gift and a by-election setback in Makerfield has prompted questions but no formal challenge or resignation signals. With a national conference scheduled for September 2026 and the party maintaining momentum ahead of the next general election, trader consensus reflects Farage's entrenched role through year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
交易量
$93
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jun 24, 2026, 5:42 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.Reform UK's strong performance in the May 2026 local elections, where the party gained over 1,400 seats and outperformed expectations in former Labour strongholds, has reinforced Nigel Farage's position as leader. He publicly described the results as a historic shift, and the party website continues to list him in the role alongside a frontbench team formed in February 2026. A June 2026 survey of Reform members showed four in five favoring his continued leadership, even absent a general election win. Recent scrutiny over a £5 million donor gift and a by-election setback in Makerfield has prompted questions but no formal challenge or resignation signals. With a national conference scheduled for September 2026 and the party maintaining momentum ahead of the next general election, trader consensus reflects Farage's entrenched role through year-end.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.
交易量
$93
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Jun 24, 2026, 5:42 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Nigel Farage ceases to be the Leader of Reform UK for any period of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Nigel Farage’s resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be information from Reform UK, however a consensus of credible reporting will also suffice.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"奈傑爾·法拉奇（ Nigel Farage ）在2026年退出英國改革領袖行列" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "奈傑爾·法拉奇於2026年卸任改革英國領袖？" at 14%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 14¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"奈傑爾·法拉奇（ Nigel Farage ）在2026年退出英國改革領袖行列" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Jun 24, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "奈傑爾·法拉奇（ Nigel Farage ）在2026年退出英國改革領袖行列," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "奈傑爾·法拉奇（ Nigel Farage ）在2026年退出英國改革領袖行列" is "奈傑爾·法拉奇於2026年卸任改革英國領袖？" at 14%, meaning the market assigns a 14% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "奈傑爾·法拉奇（ Nigel Farage ）在2026年退出英國改革領袖行列" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.