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icon for 巴西總統大選第一輪：盧拉投票份額？
世界·巴西

巴西總統大選第一輪：盧拉投票份額？

icon for 巴西總統大選第一輪：盧拉投票份額？
世界·巴西

巴西總統大選第一輪：盧拉投票份額？

41-44% 41%

44%+ 40%

38-41% 4%

35-38% 3.9%

Polymarket
最新

41-44% 41%

44%+ 40%

38-41% 4%

35-38% 3.9%

Polymarket
最新

少於35%

$485 交易量

1%

35-38%

$618 交易量

4%

38-41%

$1,180 交易量

4%

41-44%

$1,551 交易量

41%

44%+

$1,920 交易量

40%

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holding first-round support in the high 30s to low 40s across major surveys, with figures ranging from 37% (PoderData) to 44% (AtlasIntel) in mid-September releases. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) trails closely in most head-to-head aggregates, while fragmented support for candidates such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema keeps the top-two contest tight. Recent policy steps, including a 15% increase in Bolsa Família payments, have aimed to shore up Lula’s base among lower-income voters, yet persistent polarization and comparable rejection rates for both frontrunners have produced statistical ties in runoff simulations. The narrow spread between the 41-44% and 44%+ market brackets reflects this polling variability and the limited time remaining before ballots close.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.

The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$5,755
結束日期
2026-10-05
市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling for Brazil’s October 4 first round shows President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT) holding first-round support in the high 30s to low 40s across major surveys, with figures ranging from 37% (PoderData) to 44% (AtlasIntel) in mid-September releases. Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) trails closely in most head-to-head aggregates, while fragmented support for candidates such as Augusto Cury, Renan Santos, Ronaldo Caiado, and Romeu Zema keeps the top-two contest tight. Recent policy steps, including a 15% increase in Bolsa Família payments, have aimed to shore up Lula’s base among lower-income voters, yet persistent polarization and comparable rejection rates for both frontrunners have produced statistical ties in runoff simulations. The narrow spread between the 41-44% and 44%+ market brackets reflects this polling variability and the limited time remaining before ballots close.

A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election.

The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.

If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the official vote count.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid votes received by Luis Inácio (Lula) da Silva in the first round of this election. The percentage of valid votes received by the specified candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes the candidate receives in the first round by the sum of all valid votes cast in the first round. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the specified candidate does not appear on the ballot in the first round, or otherwise receives no valid votes, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the official vote count. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official. If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket. This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, including the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$5,755
結束日期
2026-10-05
市場開放時間
Sep 15, 2026, 10:25 PM ET

結算方

0x69c47De9D...

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警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"巴西總統大選第一輪：盧拉投票份額？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "41-44%" at 41%, followed by "44%+" at 40%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 41¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"巴西總統大選第一輪：盧拉投票份額？" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 15, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "巴西總統大選第一輪：盧拉投票份額？," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "巴西總統大選第一輪：盧拉投票份額？" is "41-44%" at 41%, meaning the market assigns a 41% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "44%+" at 40%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "巴西總統大選第一輪：盧拉投票份額？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.