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政治·巴西

聖保羅州長選舉贏家

icon for 聖保羅州長選舉贏家
政治·巴西

聖保羅州長選舉贏家

塔爾西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯 94%

費爾南多·哈達德 4.4%

艾莉卡·希爾頓 <1%

金·卡塔古里 <1%

Polymarket

$279,524 交易量

塔爾西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯 94%

費爾南多·哈達德 4.4%

艾莉卡·希爾頓 <1%

金·卡塔古里 <1%

Polymarket

$279,524 交易量

icon for 塔爾西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯

塔爾西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯

$123,143 交易量

94%

icon for 費爾南多·哈達德

費爾南多·哈達德

$47,232 交易量

4%

icon for 艾莉卡·希爾頓

艾莉卡·希爾頓

$22,704 交易量

1%

icon for 金·卡塔古里

金·卡塔古里

$75,777 交易量

<1%

icon for 馬西奧·法蘭薩

馬西奧·法蘭薩

$10,668 交易量

<1%

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4, 2026. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ideia, and Vox Brasil place him between 41% and 53% in the first round, ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15–20 points, with other candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França polling in low single digits. This positioning reflects his established voter base in Brazil’s most populous state, consolidation of center-right support, and Haddad’s structural challenges as the main opposition contender. Trader consensus at 93.5% aligns with these patterns. Late shifts could arise from runoff dynamics, debate performances, turnout variations, or unexpected coalition or economic developments before the first-round threshold.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$279,524
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a commanding lead in the São Paulo gubernatorial race as the incumbent Republican seeking reelection on October 4, 2026. Recent surveys from Datafolha, Genial/Quaest, Ideia, and Vox Brasil place him between 41% and 53% in the first round, ahead of Fernando Haddad by 15–20 points, with other candidates including Erika Hilton, Kim Kataguiri, and Márcio França polling in low single digits. This positioning reflects his established voter base in Brazil’s most populous state, consolidation of center-right support, and Haddad’s structural challenges as the main opposition contender. Trader consensus at 93.5% aligns with these patterns. Late shifts could arise from runoff dynamics, debate performances, turnout variations, or unexpected coalition or economic developments before the first-round threshold.

The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.

Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.

If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".

This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$279,524
結束日期
2026-10-04
市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"聖保羅州長選舉贏家" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "塔爾西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯" at 94%, followed by "費爾南多·哈達德" at 4%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 94¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "聖保羅州長選舉贏家" has generated $279.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 27, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "聖保羅州長選舉贏家," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "聖保羅州長選舉贏家" is "塔爾西西奧·德·弗雷塔斯" at 94%, meaning the market assigns a 94% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "費爾南多·哈達德" at 4%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "聖保羅州長選舉贏家" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.