Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a dominant position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race through strong early polling leads, consistent approval ratings above 50 percent in recent surveys, and a record of infrastructure expansion and fiscal management as incumbent. Fernando Haddad’s entry as the main challenger, confirmed after stepping down as finance minister, has not narrowed the gap, with most head-to-head scenarios still favoring the Republican incumbent by double digits. Fragmented support for alternatives such as Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França keeps the contest polarized, raising the prospect of a first-round outcome. Traders have priced these dynamics into elevated odds for de Freitas, reflecting the absence of viable third-way momentum six months before the October 2026 vote.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Tarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 12.5%
金·卡塔古里 4.2%
Erika Hilton 2.5%
$22,105 交易量
$22,105 交易量
2026-10-04
Tarcísio de Freitas
83%
Fernando Haddad
13%
金·卡塔古里
4%
Erika Hilton
3%
Márcio França
1%
Tarcísio de Freitas 83%
Fernando Haddad 12.5%
金·卡塔古里 4.2%
Erika Hilton 2.5%
$22,105 交易量
$22,105 交易量
2026-10-04
Tarcísio de Freitas
$11,122 交易量
83%
Fernando Haddad
$3,541 交易量
13%
金·卡塔古里
$1,910 交易量
4%
Erika Hilton
$3,189 交易量
3%
Márcio França
$2,343 交易量
1%
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a dominant position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race through strong early polling leads, consistent approval ratings above 50 percent in recent surveys, and a record of infrastructure expansion and fiscal management as incumbent. Fernando Haddad’s entry as the main challenger, confirmed after stepping down as finance minister, has not narrowed the gap, with most head-to-head scenarios still favoring the Republican incumbent by double digits. Fragmented support for alternatives such as Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França keeps the contest polarized, raising the prospect of a first-round outcome. Traders have priced these dynamics into elevated odds for de Freitas, reflecting the absence of viable third-way momentum six months before the October 2026 vote.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市場開放時間： Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ET
交易量
$22,105結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a dominant position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race through strong early polling leads, consistent approval ratings above 50 percent in recent surveys, and a record of infrastructure expansion and fiscal management as incumbent. Fernando Haddad’s entry as the main challenger, confirmed after stepping down as finance minister, has not narrowed the gap, with most head-to-head scenarios still favoring the Republican incumbent by double digits. Fragmented support for alternatives such as Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França keeps the contest polarized, raising the prospect of a first-round outcome. Traders have priced these dynamics into elevated odds for de Freitas, reflecting the absence of viable third-way momentum six months before the October 2026 vote.
The São Paulo gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$22,105結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Apr 27, 2026, 5:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Tarcísio de Freitas maintains a dominant position in the São Paulo gubernatorial race through strong early polling leads, consistent approval ratings above 50 percent in recent surveys, and a record of infrastructure expansion and fiscal management as incumbent. Fernando Haddad’s entry as the main challenger, confirmed after stepping down as finance minister, has not narrowed the gap, with most head-to-head scenarios still favoring the Republican incumbent by double digits. Fragmented support for alternatives such as Kim Kataguiri, Erika Hilton, and Márcio França keeps the contest polarized, raising the prospect of a first-round outcome. Traders have priced these dynamics into elevated odds for de Freitas, reflecting the absence of viable third-way momentum six months before the October 2026 vote.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions