President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's active role in steering the Workers' Party toward his fourth presidential bid for the October 4, 2026, election underpins the 85.5% implied probability on a nomination by August 15. At its April 26 national congress, the party adopted a manifesto prioritizing Lula's candidacy and directed leaders to build broader alliances, including ceding some gubernatorial races. Lula's March 31 confirmation of Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate, combined with recent polling leads over challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro, has reinforced internal unity and left no viable alternative candidate. Party conventions scheduled between July 20 and August 5 align with the timeline, rendering formal filing a procedural step absent health complications or sudden internal shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$11,224 交易量
$11,224 交易量
2026-08-15
是
$11,224 交易量
$11,224 交易量
2026-08-15
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's active role in steering the Workers' Party toward his fourth presidential bid for the October 4, 2026, election underpins the 85.5% implied probability on a nomination by August 15. At its April 26 national congress, the party adopted a manifesto prioritizing Lula's candidacy and directed leaders to build broader alliances, including ceding some gubernatorial races. Lula's March 31 confirmation of Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate, combined with recent polling leads over challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro, has reinforced internal unity and left no viable alternative candidate. Party conventions scheduled between July 20 and August 5 align with the timeline, rendering formal filing a procedural step absent health complications or sudden internal shifts.
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Apr 17, 2026, 6:22 PM ET
交易量
$11,224結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Apr 17, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's active role in steering the Workers' Party toward his fourth presidential bid for the October 4, 2026, election underpins the 85.5% implied probability on a nomination by August 15. At its April 26 national congress, the party adopted a manifesto prioritizing Lula's candidacy and directed leaders to build broader alliances, including ceding some gubernatorial races. Lula's March 31 confirmation of Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate, combined with recent polling leads over challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro, has reinforced internal unity and left no viable alternative candidate. Party conventions scheduled between July 20 and August 5 align with the timeline, rendering formal filing a procedural step absent health complications or sudden internal shifts.
The 2026 Brazil presidential election is currently scheduled to be held on October 4, 2026. Political parties must file candidate registration applications with the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) for the 2026 Brazil presidential election by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Workers’ Party (Partido dos Trabalhadores, PT) files a candidate registration application nominating Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva for President of Brazil by August 15, 2026, 7:00 PM Brasília time (UTC−03:00). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A filing by a coalition (coligação) or party federation (federação partidária) that includes the PT and names Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as its presidential candidate will also qualify.
This market will resolve based on the filing date (Data de Autuação) of an applicable Application for Registration of Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura, RRC). An Application for Registration of Individual Candidacy (Requerimento de Registro de Candidatura Individual, RRCI) will not qualify for resolution of this market.
The primary resolution source will be official filings from the Superior Electoral Court (TSE); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$11,224結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Apr 17, 2026, 6:22 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva's active role in steering the Workers' Party toward his fourth presidential bid for the October 4, 2026, election underpins the 85.5% implied probability on a nomination by August 15. At its April 26 national congress, the party adopted a manifesto prioritizing Lula's candidacy and directed leaders to build broader alliances, including ceding some gubernatorial races. Lula's March 31 confirmation of Vice President Geraldo Alckmin as his running mate, combined with recent polling leads over challengers such as Flávio Bolsonaro, has reinforced internal unity and left no viable alternative candidate. Party conventions scheduled between July 20 and August 5 align with the timeline, rendering formal filing a procedural step absent health complications or sudden internal shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions