Flavio Bolsonaro’s selection of federal deputy Alfredo Gaspar as his vice-presidential running mate on August 5 has driven the current market pricing, with Gaspar holding the strongest implied probability among listed options. The announcement followed weeks of internal Liberal Party deliberations and unsuccessful outreach to centrist figures, resulting in a PL-only ticket for the October 2026 presidential contest against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Other names such as Bia Kicis, Priscila Costa, and Michelle Bolsonaro register lower probabilities, reflecting limited recent momentum or public signals of consideration. Traders appear to view the confirmed choice and the approaching candidacy registration deadline as the decisive factors shaping the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於阿爾弗雷多·加斯帕爾 93%
特蕾莎·克里斯蒂娜 10%
丹妮拉·馬克斯 10%
普莉西拉·科斯塔 8%

阿爾弗雷多·加斯帕爾
76%

特蕾莎·克里斯蒂娜
10%

丹妮拉·馬克斯
10%

普莉西拉·科斯塔
8%

席莫內·馬爾凱托
5%

米歇爾·博索納羅
4%

馬克斯·龐特斯
4%

吉爾森·馬查多
3%

羅傑里奧·馬里尼奧
1%

朱利婭·扎納塔
1%

克拉麗莎·特西奧
-

達瑪瑞絲·阿爾維斯
-

雷納塔·阿布雷烏
-

比亞·基西斯
-

Rosana Valle
-
阿爾弗雷多·加斯帕爾 93%
特蕾莎·克里斯蒂娜 10%
丹妮拉·馬克斯 10%
普莉西拉·科斯塔 8%

阿爾弗雷多·加斯帕爾
76%

特蕾莎·克里斯蒂娜
10%

丹妮拉·馬克斯
10%

普莉西拉·科斯塔
8%

席莫內·馬爾凱托
5%

米歇爾·博索納羅
4%

馬克斯·龐特斯
4%

吉爾森·馬查多
3%

羅傑里奧·馬里尼奧
1%

朱利婭·扎納塔
1%

克拉麗莎·特西奧
-

達瑪瑞絲·阿爾維斯
-

雷納塔·阿布雷烏
-

比亞·基西斯
-

Rosana Valle
-
An announcement of candidate selection will not alone qualify.
If Flavio Bolsonaro does not officially file a registration request to contest the 2026 Brazil presidential elections by August 15, 2026, 11:59 Brasilia time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Any subsequent substitution, replacement, withdrawal, disqualification, or other change to the initially registered vice-presidential candidate will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil, including the Superior Electoral Court (TSE, https://divulgacandcontas.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間: Aug 4, 2026, 12:08 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...An announcement of candidate selection will not alone qualify.
If Flavio Bolsonaro does not officially file a registration request to contest the 2026 Brazil presidential elections by August 15, 2026, 11:59 Brasilia time, this market will resolve to “Other”.
Any subsequent substitution, replacement, withdrawal, disqualification, or other change to the initially registered vice-presidential candidate will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Government of Brazil, including the Superior Electoral Court (TSE, https://divulgacandcontas.tse.jus.br/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Flavio Bolsonaro’s selection of federal deputy Alfredo Gaspar as his vice-presidential running mate on August 5 has driven the current market pricing, with Gaspar holding the strongest implied probability among listed options. The announcement followed weeks of internal Liberal Party deliberations and unsuccessful outreach to centrist figures, resulting in a PL-only ticket for the October 2026 presidential contest against incumbent Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. Other names such as Bia Kicis, Priscila Costa, and Michelle Bolsonaro register lower probabilities, reflecting limited recent momentum or public signals of consideration. Traders appear to view the confirmed choice and the approaching candidacy registration deadline as the decisive factors shaping the outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於


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