São Paulo’s October 2026 Senate race for two seats features a crowded field of more than two dozen pre-candidates, including Marina Silva (REDE), Ricardo Salles (Novo), André do Prado (PL), and others, with no incumbents seeking reelection. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation, with many outcomes priced near even money and top names clustered in the low-to-mid 40s or below. Recent formalizations of candidacies and ongoing party negotiations have yet to produce clear frontrunners or major polling separation. Factors that could shift probabilities include coalition alignments tied to the presidential contest, targeted voter outreach among key demographics, and any late endorsements or withdrawals that consolidate support ahead of the single-round vote.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Marina Silva 49%
Soninha Francine 44%
Ednelson Cesaretti 43%
Geraldo Rufino 43%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
Marina Silva
49%
Soninha Francine
44%
Ednelson Cesaretti
43%
Geraldo Rufino
43%
Simone Tebet
41%
Salles
39%
Maíra de Souza
25%
Petter Maahs
25%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
19%
André do Prado
19%
William Teixeira
8%
Marcio Alves
8%
Weller Gonçalves
46%
Guilherme Derrite
41%
Marina Silva 49%
Soninha Francine 44%
Ednelson Cesaretti 43%
Geraldo Rufino 43%
最新
最新
2026-10-04
Marina Silva
$20 交易量
49%
Soninha Francine
$20 交易量
44%
Ednelson Cesaretti
$20 交易量
43%
Geraldo Rufino
$20 交易量
43%
Simone Tebet
$20 交易量
41%
Salles
$20 交易量
39%
Maíra de Souza
$20 交易量
25%
Petter Maahs
$20 交易量
25%
Dra. Eliana Ferreira
$20 交易量
19%
André do Prado
$20 交易量
19%
William Teixeira
$40 交易量
8%
Marcio Alves
$40 交易量
8%
Weller Gonçalves
$20 交易量
46%
Guilherme Derrite
$40 交易量
41%
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).São Paulo’s October 2026 Senate race for two seats features a crowded field of more than two dozen pre-candidates, including Marina Silva (REDE), Ricardo Salles (Novo), André do Prado (PL), and others, with no incumbents seeking reelection. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation, with many outcomes priced near even money and top names clustered in the low-to-mid 40s or below. Recent formalizations of candidacies and ongoing party negotiations have yet to produce clear frontrunners or major polling separation. Factors that could shift probabilities include coalition alignments tied to the presidential contest, targeted voter outreach among key demographics, and any late endorsements or withdrawals that consolidate support ahead of the single-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
市場開放時間： Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ET
交易量
$340結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).São Paulo’s October 2026 Senate race for two seats features a crowded field of more than two dozen pre-candidates, including Marina Silva (REDE), Ricardo Salles (Novo), André do Prado (PL), and others, with no incumbents seeking reelection. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation, with many outcomes priced near even money and top names clustered in the low-to-mid 40s or below. Recent formalizations of candidacies and ongoing party negotiations have yet to produce clear frontrunners or major polling separation. Factors that could shift probabilities include coalition alignments tied to the presidential contest, targeted voter outreach among key demographics, and any late endorsements or withdrawals that consolidate support ahead of the single-round vote.
The Brazilian Federal Senate election for São Paulo is scheduled to take place on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the most valid votes of any candidate at the specified election.
Candidates will be primarily ranked by order of valid votes won. If two or more candidates are tied for any position, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the candidates’ listed full names as they appear in this market. This market will resolve to the candidate that occupies the highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
If the result of this election isn't definitively known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
交易量
$340結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Aug 17, 2026, 6:11 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...São Paulo’s October 2026 Senate race for two seats features a crowded field of more than two dozen pre-candidates, including Marina Silva (REDE), Ricardo Salles (Novo), André do Prado (PL), and others, with no incumbents seeking reelection. Trader consensus reflects this fragmentation, with many outcomes priced near even money and top names clustered in the low-to-mid 40s or below. Recent formalizations of candidacies and ongoing party negotiations have yet to produce clear frontrunners or major polling separation. Factors that could shift probabilities include coalition alignments tied to the presidential contest, targeted voter outreach among key demographics, and any late endorsements or withdrawals that consolidate support ahead of the single-round vote.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions