President Trump has shown no signs of stepping down and remains focused on advancing his second-term agenda through executive actions on border security, trade policy, and deregulation. With roughly 19 months left before the market's resolution date, historical precedents indicate that U.S. presidents rarely resign absent acute constitutional crises or severe health events, neither of which has materialized. Congressional priorities, including potential debt-ceiling negotiations and appropriations battles, further align with expectations of continuity through the end of 2026. Traders appear to assign only modest weight to low-probability tail risks such as sudden medical developments or unforeseen scandals.