Close bilateral security cooperation between the United States and Colombia, including joint counter-narcotics exercises concluded in mid-November 2026 and high-level military talks on interoperability, centers trader assessments of a US strike on Colombian soil by year-end. Colombia’s new administration has aligned with Washington through the Shield of the Americas initiative, enabling shared intelligence, training, and equipment support against armed groups and trafficking networks rather than unilateral action. Recent drone attacks by groups such as the ELN have heightened violence but prompted coordinated responses instead of escalation. Ongoing staff talks and planned exchanges through 2028 reinforce partnership frameworks, keeping implied probabilities for a strike low amid emphasis on joint operations over direct intervention.