US military contingency planning for Cuba has intensified in 2026 amid an oil blockade and sanctions that have deepened Havana’s economic and energy crisis, including widespread blackouts. Pentagon documents reviewed in late September show the Army Reserve assessing logistics, medical, engineering, and military police units for potential SOUTHCOM support within 90–120 days, though no deployment orders exist and officials describe it as planning rather than preparation for invasion. President Trump has repeatedly stated that military action is unnecessary and that a deal with Cuba is expected, while SOUTHCOM has expanded drone operations at Guantanamo and conducted nearby exercises. Cuban officials reject any use of force as unlawful and note ongoing but stalled bilateral talks. These factors frame trader assessments of near-term action risk.