Ongoing US-Panama diplomatic cooperation and joint military exercises, including the recent PANAMAX 2026 drills and bilateral meetings with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino, underscore shared interests in securing the canal against external threats like Chinese influence rather than pursuing unilateral control. Court actions limiting Chinese-linked port operations and emphasis on treaty-based neutrality have advanced US objectives without violating sovereignty or triggering regional backlash. This approach aligns with historical precedent of the 1977 treaties and current priorities around trade security and counternarcotics. Traders' 96.5% implied probability for no seizure before 2027 reflects these stable dynamics, though escalation from a major diplomatic rupture, acute security crisis, or policy reversal could still shift odds within the timeframe.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
3% 機率
$165,873 交易量
$165,873 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 機率
$165,873 交易量
$165,873 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.Ongoing US-Panama diplomatic cooperation and joint military exercises, including the recent PANAMAX 2026 drills and bilateral meetings with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino, underscore shared interests in securing the canal against external threats like Chinese influence rather than pursuing unilateral control. Court actions limiting Chinese-linked port operations and emphasis on treaty-based neutrality have advanced US objectives without violating sovereignty or triggering regional backlash. This approach aligns with historical precedent of the 1977 treaties and current priorities around trade security and counternarcotics. Traders' 96.5% implied probability for no seizure before 2027 reflects these stable dynamics, though escalation from a major diplomatic rupture, acute security crisis, or policy reversal could still shift odds within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
市場開放時間： Nov 13, 2025, 4:44 PM ET
交易量
$165,873結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.Ongoing US-Panama diplomatic cooperation and joint military exercises, including the recent PANAMAX 2026 drills and bilateral meetings with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino, underscore shared interests in securing the canal against external threats like Chinese influence rather than pursuing unilateral control. Court actions limiting Chinese-linked port operations and emphasis on treaty-based neutrality have advanced US objectives without violating sovereignty or triggering regional backlash. This approach aligns with historical precedent of the 1977 treaties and current priorities around trade security and counternarcotics. Traders' 96.5% implied probability for no seizure before 2027 reflects these stable dynamics, though escalation from a major diplomatic rupture, acute security crisis, or policy reversal could still shift odds within the timeframe.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.
An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.
交易量
$165,873結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 13, 2025, 4:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Panama diplomatic cooperation and joint military exercises, including the recent PANAMAX 2026 drills and bilateral meetings with Panamanian President José Raúl Mulino, underscore shared interests in securing the canal against external threats like Chinese influence rather than pursuing unilateral control. Court actions limiting Chinese-linked port operations and emphasis on treaty-based neutrality have advanced US objectives without violating sovereignty or triggering regional backlash. This approach aligns with historical precedent of the 1977 treaties and current priorities around trade security and counternarcotics. Traders' 96.5% implied probability for no seizure before 2027 reflects these stable dynamics, though escalation from a major diplomatic rupture, acute security crisis, or policy reversal could still shift odds within the timeframe.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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