Iran has conducted repeated missile and drone strikes into Iraq's Kurdistan Region since February 2026 as part of the broader regional conflict, targeting Iranian Kurdish opposition camps, U.S.-linked sites, and infrastructure in Erbil and surrounding areas. These actions, often attributed to the IRGC or aligned militias, accelerated after U.S. forces completed their withdrawal by late September 2026, removing a key deterrent and leaving the semi-autonomous region more exposed. Baghdad faces competing pressures: Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces resist disarmament deadlines now extended to June 2027, while the government seeks to curb cross-border launches used against Gulf targets. Trader positioning on resolution dates reflects these sustained military patterns, militia leverage, and the absence of de-escalation agreements that would alter the risk of further direct Iranian actions.