Ongoing geopolitical conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran since late February 2026 has severely restricted commercial traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, with AIS-visible transits averaging just 4.7 ships per day over the past week versus roughly 85 pre-crisis levels. Persistent attacks on tankers, Iranian requirements for transit permits, elevated war-risk insurance premiums around 15 times baseline, and carrier service suspensions continue to suppress volumes, aligning with market-implied odds heavily favoring 0-5 or 5-10 daily ships by month-end. Recent developments include fresh vessel strikes in early October and stalled diplomacy following a temporary memorandum of understanding, leaving flows at a fraction of the normal 20 million barrels of oil daily. Traders appear to price limited near-term improvement absent major de-escalation before the November US midterms.