Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability for OpenAI's IPO closing market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion, propelled by the company's March 2026 record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money private valuation—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—reflecting explosive AI revenue growth from enterprise API deals and agentic workflows. Recent secondary share tenders reaffirmed this $852 billion benchmark, with onchain pre-IPO instruments implying up to $1 trillion amid surging trading volume. However, CFO Sarah Friar's early May reports of missed revenue targets and $17 billion cash burn elevated the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" odds to 17%, signaling timeline risks versus CEO Altman's Q4 2026 target. Key catalysts include potential S-1 filings and Microsoft revenue-share caps at $38 billion.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於1.5兆以上 69.6%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股 17%
低於5000億 9.8%
1.25兆–1.5兆 9%
$16,653 交易量
$16,653 交易量
低於5000億
10%
5,000–7,500 億
4%
7,500億–1兆
8%
1 兆–1.25 兆
8%
1.25兆–1.5兆
9%
1.5兆以上
70%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股
17%
1.5兆以上 69.6%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股 17%
低於5000億 9.8%
1.25兆–1.5兆 9%
$16,653 交易量
$16,653 交易量
低於5000億
10%
5,000–7,500 億
4%
7,500億–1兆
8%
1 兆–1.25 兆
8%
1.25兆–1.5兆
9%
1.5兆以上
70%
2027年12月31日前不進行首次公開募股
17%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
市場開放時間: Feb 6, 2026, 6:07 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO by December 31, 2027".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency. It is calculated as the number of shares outstanding multiplied by the closing share price on the first trading day.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
Resolution will be based on the primary exchange’s official listing page. In the event that the relevant figure is not displayed, another reliable source will be used.
In the event of an interruption in the course of the normal trading session on OpenAI’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that as the first day of trading for purposes of this market.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 70.5% implied probability for OpenAI's IPO closing market cap exceeding $1.5 trillion, propelled by the company's March 2026 record $122 billion funding round at an $852 billion post-money private valuation—led by Amazon, Nvidia, and SoftBank—reflecting explosive AI revenue growth from enterprise API deals and agentic workflows. Recent secondary share tenders reaffirmed this $852 billion benchmark, with onchain pre-IPO instruments implying up to $1 trillion amid surging trading volume. However, CFO Sarah Friar's early May reports of missed revenue targets and $17 billion cash burn elevated the "No IPO by December 31, 2027" odds to 17%, signaling timeline risks versus CEO Altman's Q4 2026 target. Key catalysts include potential S-1 filings and Microsoft revenue-share caps at $38 billion.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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