**OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s September 12 statements ruling out a 2026 IPO have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment.** Altman cited the need to prioritize AI safety and alignment work, stating it would be “ill-advised” to list now amid regulatory and industry coordination pressures, pushing any debut into 2027. The company’s March 2026 private round valued it at $852 billion, yet Altman has treated sub-$1 trillion outcomes as nonstarters while revenue run rates have climbed toward $24–40 billion annualized with enterprise momentum. High GAAP losses and heavy compute spending, alongside Anthropic’s planned October–November 2026 listing at potentially elevated multiples, create uncertainty around achievable public-market pricing. These dynamics underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around the $1.5–2.0 trillion range, reflecting trader assessments of growth potential tempered by execution and timing risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$1.75T–$2.0T 22%
$1.5T–$1.75T 18.9%
$2.5T+ 16.4%
$1.25T–$1.5T 15.4%
$134,672 交易量
$134,672 交易量
2027-06-30
<$1T
6%
$1.0T–$1.25T
12%
$1.25T–$1.5T
15%
$1.5T–$1.75T
19%
$1.75T–$2.0T
22%
$2.0T–$2.25T
5%
$2.25T–$2.5T
7%
$2.5T+
16%
$1.75T–$2.0T 22%
$1.5T–$1.75T 18.9%
$2.5T+ 16.4%
$1.25T–$1.5T 15.4%
$134,672 交易量
$134,672 交易量
2027-06-30
<$1T
$18,922 交易量
6%
$1.0T–$1.25T
$17,080 交易量
12%
$1.25T–$1.5T
$7,730 交易量
15%
$1.5T–$1.75T
$7,293 交易量
19%
$1.75T–$2.0T
$13,600 交易量
22%
$2.0T–$2.25T
$2,616 交易量
5%
$2.25T–$2.5T
$8,484 交易量
7%
$2.5T+
$58,946 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s September 12 statements ruling out a 2026 IPO have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment.** Altman cited the need to prioritize AI safety and alignment work, stating it would be “ill-advised” to list now amid regulatory and industry coordination pressures, pushing any debut into 2027. The company’s March 2026 private round valued it at $852 billion, yet Altman has treated sub-$1 trillion outcomes as nonstarters while revenue run rates have climbed toward $24–40 billion annualized with enterprise momentum. High GAAP losses and heavy compute spending, alongside Anthropic’s planned October–November 2026 listing at potentially elevated multiples, create uncertainty around achievable public-market pricing. These dynamics underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around the $1.5–2.0 trillion range, reflecting trader assessments of growth potential tempered by execution and timing risks.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ET
交易量
$134,672結束日期
2027-07-01市場開放時間
May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.**OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s September 12 statements ruling out a 2026 IPO have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment.** Altman cited the need to prioritize AI safety and alignment work, stating it would be “ill-advised” to list now amid regulatory and industry coordination pressures, pushing any debut into 2027. The company’s March 2026 private round valued it at $852 billion, yet Altman has treated sub-$1 trillion outcomes as nonstarters while revenue run rates have climbed toward $24–40 billion annualized with enterprise momentum. High GAAP losses and heavy compute spending, alongside Anthropic’s planned October–November 2026 listing at potentially elevated multiples, create uncertainty around achievable public-market pricing. These dynamics underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around the $1.5–2.0 trillion range, reflecting trader assessments of growth potential tempered by execution and timing risks.
This market will resolve according to the implied equity valuation of OpenAI at its initial public offering (IPO) price.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The IPO valuation is defined as the final IPO price per share multiplied by the total number of shares outstanding on a fully diluted basis, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
The IPO price will be the final offering price to the public as stated in the final prospectus. Trading prices after listing, including the opening trade, intraday prices, or closing price on the first day of trading, will not be considered.
Indicated or preliminary price ranges, including any ranges disclosed in earlier filings or amendments, will not be considered.
If the calculated valuation falls exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$134,672結束日期
2027-07-01市場開放時間
May 21, 2026, 1:27 PM ET**OpenAI’s confidential S-1 filing in June 2026 and CEO Sam Altman’s September 12 statements ruling out a 2026 IPO have become the dominant driver of trader sentiment.** Altman cited the need to prioritize AI safety and alignment work, stating it would be “ill-advised” to list now amid regulatory and industry coordination pressures, pushing any debut into 2027. The company’s March 2026 private round valued it at $852 billion, yet Altman has treated sub-$1 trillion outcomes as nonstarters while revenue run rates have climbed toward $24–40 billion annualized with enterprise momentum. High GAAP losses and heavy compute spending, alongside Anthropic’s planned October–November 2026 listing at potentially elevated multiples, create uncertainty around achievable public-market pricing. These dynamics underpin the tight clustering of Polymarket probabilities around the $1.5–2.0 trillion range, reflecting trader assessments of growth potential tempered by execution and timing risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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