Sam Altman’s September 12, 2026 statements ruling out a 2026 IPO, citing AI safety and alignment priorities ahead of any listing, represent the dominant catalyst shifting trader sentiment on OpenAI’s eventual capital raise. The company’s June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and pursuit of a $1 trillion valuation—well above its March 2026 private mark near $852 billion—support the leading 42.5% implied probability on a $100 billion-plus raise, reflecting expectations for substantial equity issuance to fund compute infrastructure once timing aligns. Market-implied odds also price notable uncertainty around smaller outcomes, consistent with historical precedents for large tech IPOs and the company’s ongoing private capital access. Key upcoming catalysts include any industry safety coordination announcements or shifts in macroeconomic conditions affecting IPO windows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$100B+ 41%
<$30B 27.5%
$40B–$50B 20.6%
$70B–$80B 8.7%
最新
最新
2027-12-30
<$30B
28%
$30B–$40B
4%
$40B–$50B
24%
$50B–$60B
6%
$60B–$70B
8%
$70B–$80B
9%
$80B–$90B
21%
$90B–$100B
3%
$100B+
55%
$100B+ 41%
<$30B 27.5%
$40B–$50B 20.6%
$70B–$80B 8.7%
最新
最新
2027-12-30
<$30B
$603 交易量
28%
$30B–$40B
$463 交易量
4%
$40B–$50B
$1,621 交易量
24%
$50B–$60B
$1,153 交易量
6%
$60B–$70B
$499 交易量
8%
$70B–$80B
$489 交易量
9%
$80B–$90B
$448 交易量
21%
$90B–$100B
$306 交易量
3%
$100B+
$1,742 交易量
55%
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sam Altman’s September 12, 2026 statements ruling out a 2026 IPO, citing AI safety and alignment priorities ahead of any listing, represent the dominant catalyst shifting trader sentiment on OpenAI’s eventual capital raise. The company’s June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and pursuit of a $1 trillion valuation—well above its March 2026 private mark near $852 billion—support the leading 42.5% implied probability on a $100 billion-plus raise, reflecting expectations for substantial equity issuance to fund compute infrastructure once timing aligns. Market-implied odds also price notable uncertainty around smaller outcomes, consistent with historical precedents for large tech IPOs and the company’s ongoing private capital access. Key upcoming catalysts include any industry safety coordination announcements or shifts in macroeconomic conditions affecting IPO windows.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ET
交易量
$7,324結束日期
2027-12-31市場開放時間
May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Sam Altman’s September 12, 2026 statements ruling out a 2026 IPO, citing AI safety and alignment priorities ahead of any listing, represent the dominant catalyst shifting trader sentiment on OpenAI’s eventual capital raise. The company’s June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and pursuit of a $1 trillion valuation—well above its March 2026 private mark near $852 billion—support the leading 42.5% implied probability on a $100 billion-plus raise, reflecting expectations for substantial equity issuance to fund compute infrastructure once timing aligns. Market-implied odds also price notable uncertainty around smaller outcomes, consistent with historical precedents for large tech IPOs and the company’s ongoing private capital access. Key upcoming catalysts include any industry safety coordination announcements or shifts in macroeconomic conditions affecting IPO windows.
This market will resolve according to the total gross proceeds raised by OpenAI in its initial public offering (IPO) at the time of pricing.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The amount raised is defined as the aggregate dollar value of shares sold at the final offering price at the time of IPO pricing, as disclosed in the final prospectus filed with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Shares sold pursuant to any overallotment option (greenshoe) will not be considered.
Secondary sales of existing shares by current shareholders will be included only to the extent that they are part of the IPO offering at pricing and reflected in the total gross proceeds. Private secondary transactions conducted outside of the IPO will not be considered.
If the total proceeds fall exactly on a boundary between two ranges, this market will resolve to the higher range.
If OpenAI does not complete an IPO by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
The primary resolution source will be the final prospectus filed with the SEC; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$7,324結束日期
2027-12-31市場開放時間
May 21, 2026, 1:14 PM ETSam Altman’s September 12, 2026 statements ruling out a 2026 IPO, citing AI safety and alignment priorities ahead of any listing, represent the dominant catalyst shifting trader sentiment on OpenAI’s eventual capital raise. The company’s June 2026 confidential S-1 filing and pursuit of a $1 trillion valuation—well above its March 2026 private mark near $852 billion—support the leading 42.5% implied probability on a $100 billion-plus raise, reflecting expectations for substantial equity issuance to fund compute infrastructure once timing aligns. Market-implied odds also price notable uncertainty around smaller outcomes, consistent with historical precedents for large tech IPOs and the company’s ongoing private capital access. Key upcoming catalysts include any industry safety coordination announcements or shifts in macroeconomic conditions affecting IPO windows.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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