Gold futures (GC) trade near $4,170 per ounce in early October 2026, pressured by the Federal Reserve’s September rate hike to a 3.75–4.00% target range and 10-year Treasury yields above 5%. Hawkish repricing, driven by sticky energy-led inflation and a resilient labor market earlier in the quarter, has lifted the dollar and raised holding costs for the non-yielding metal. Offsetting support comes from persistent central bank purchases, particularly from China, alongside investor focus on fiscal deficits and monetary debasement risks that have weakened gold’s traditional correlation with real yields. Key near-term catalysts include the October 14 CPI release, the October 27–28 FOMC meeting, and subsequent labor and inflation data that will shape year-end rate expectations and gold’s path into December.