**Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 100% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated postponements following its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July amendments that outlined a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5–5.6 million shares at $8–10 per share.** The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech, focused on steroid-free treatments for inflammatory eye diseases like uveitis, targeted a fully diluted market capitalization near $294–299 million at the midpoint. However, planned pricing windows around July 9–15 passed without execution amid broader softness in small-cap biotech IPO demand, limited pre-revenue fundamentals, and no fresh regulatory or clinical catalysts to accelerate timing. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, trader consensus has consolidated around further delay. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected final prospectus amendment and rapid pricing in the final days of August, though the absence of updates through late summer continues to anchor sentiment on postponement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2026年9月之前不上市 100.0%
低於2.5億美元 <1%
2.5 億 - 3 億美元 <1%
3億美元－3.5億美元 <1%
$18,180 交易量
$18,180 交易量
2026-08-31
低於2.5億美元
否
2.5 億 - 3 億美元
否
3億美元－3.5億美元
否
3.5億美元-4億美元
否
4億-4.5億美元
否
>4.5 億美元
否
2026年9月之前不上市
是
2026年9月之前不上市 100.0%
低於2.5億美元 <1%
2.5 億 - 3 億美元 <1%
3億美元－3.5億美元 <1%
$18,180 交易量
$18,180 交易量
2026-08-31
低於2.5億美元
$1,183 交易量
否
2.5 億 - 3 億美元
$1,113 交易量
否
3億美元－3.5億美元
$1,742 交易量
否
3.5億美元-4億美元
$837 交易量
否
4億-4.5億美元
$629 交易量
否
>4.5 億美元
$1,136 交易量
否
2026年9月之前不上市
$11,539 交易量
是
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 100% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated postponements following its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July amendments that outlined a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5–5.6 million shares at $8–10 per share.**
The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech, focused on steroid-free treatments for inflammatory eye diseases like uveitis, targeted a fully diluted market capitalization near $294–299 million at the midpoint. However, planned pricing windows around July 9–15 passed without execution amid broader softness in small-cap biotech IPO demand, limited pre-revenue fundamentals, and no fresh regulatory or clinical catalysts to accelerate timing. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, trader consensus has consolidated around further delay.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected final prospectus amendment and rapid pricing in the final days of August, though the absence of updates through late summer continues to anchor sentiment on postponement.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
市場開放時間： Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ET
交易量
$18,180結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.**Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 100% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated postponements following its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July amendments that outlined a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5–5.6 million shares at $8–10 per share.**
The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech, focused on steroid-free treatments for inflammatory eye diseases like uveitis, targeted a fully diluted market capitalization near $294–299 million at the midpoint. However, planned pricing windows around July 9–15 passed without execution amid broader softness in small-cap biotech IPO demand, limited pre-revenue fundamentals, and no fresh regulatory or clinical catalysts to accelerate timing. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, trader consensus has consolidated around further delay.
Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected final prospectus amendment and rapid pricing in the final days of August, though the absence of updates through late summer continues to anchor sentiment on postponement.
This market will resolve based on Tarsier Pharma's market capitalization at the closing price on its first day of trading.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
As of market creation, the IPO is scheduled to price on July 9 (ET). If no such IPO occurs by August 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before September 2026".
Market capitalization expresses the monetary value of a company’s outstanding shares, stated in its pricing currency.
It is calculated as the total number of outstanding shares, multiplied by the official closing share price of the publicly traded class on the first trading day.
If necessary, to accurately capture the company’s total market capitalization, rather than a stock-class-specific market capitalization, the calculation will include all outstanding share classes and apply any stated conversion ratios to the publicly traded class. Where no conversion right exists, such shares will be counted at their stated outstanding amount without discount, unless official filings explicitly specify differently.
The number of outstanding shares will be determined from official company filings or disclosures (e.g., SEC filings). The closing share price on the first trading day will be determined from the primary exchange’s official listing page.
If the relevant value falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official company filings and the primary exchange’s official listing page. The market capitalization will be determined through appropriate calculation using the total outstanding shares and the closing price from the first day of trading.
In the event of an interruption in the normal trading session on the specified company’s first day of trading (e.g., a circuit breaker or half-day), the market will resolve according to the official closing price of the abbreviated session. If no such official closing price is published, the market will resolve according to the next trading day on which an official closing price is published, treating that day as the first day of trading for the purposes of this market.
交易量
$18,180結束日期
2026-09-01市場開放時間
Jul 7, 2026, 9:12 AM ET已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
**Tarsier Pharma’s dominant 100% market-implied probability of no IPO before September 2026 stems from repeated postponements following its April 2026 F-1 filing and subsequent May–July amendments that outlined a modest $45–50 million NYSE American listing of roughly 5.5–5.6 million shares at $8–10 per share.** The Israel-based Phase 3 ophthalmic biotech, focused on steroid-free treatments for inflammatory eye diseases like uveitis, targeted a fully diluted market capitalization near $294–299 million at the midpoint. However, planned pricing windows around July 9–15 passed without execution amid broader softness in small-cap biotech IPO demand, limited pre-revenue fundamentals, and no fresh regulatory or clinical catalysts to accelerate timing. With the resolution cutoff at August 31, 2026, trader consensus has consolidated around further delay. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unexpected final prospectus amendment and rapid pricing in the final days of August, though the absence of updates through late summer continues to anchor sentiment on postponement.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions