Trader consensus around a 92% implied probability of no US government ban on an open-source AI model in 2026 stems primarily from the June 2026 executive order establishing voluntary pre-release cybersecurity reviews for frontier models, without mandatory licensing or bans, alongside explicit policy exemptions for open-weight large language models in recent OMB guidance. Actions have targeted specific closed models from US labs via export controls that were later eased, while industry leaders from Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta have publicly backed open models to maintain ecosystem competition. Targeted concerns over Chinese distillation and IP issues persist but favor procurement rules or entity-list measures rather than blanket prohibitions. A realistic challenge could arise from sharp US-China escalation prompting model-specific restrictions if extreme capabilities emerge.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
8% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
8% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus around a 92% implied probability of no US government ban on an open-source AI model in 2026 stems primarily from the June 2026 executive order establishing voluntary pre-release cybersecurity reviews for frontier models, without mandatory licensing or bans, alongside explicit policy exemptions for open-weight large language models in recent OMB guidance. Actions have targeted specific closed models from US labs via export controls that were later eased, while industry leaders from Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta have publicly backed open models to maintain ecosystem competition. Targeted concerns over Chinese distillation and IP issues persist but favor procurement rules or entity-list measures rather than blanket prohibitions. A realistic challenge could arise from sharp US-China escalation prompting model-specific restrictions if extreme capabilities emerge.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 13, 2026, 10:13 PM ET
交易量
$5,104結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 13, 2026, 10:13 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus around a 92% implied probability of no US government ban on an open-source AI model in 2026 stems primarily from the June 2026 executive order establishing voluntary pre-release cybersecurity reviews for frontier models, without mandatory licensing or bans, alongside explicit policy exemptions for open-weight large language models in recent OMB guidance. Actions have targeted specific closed models from US labs via export controls that were later eased, while industry leaders from Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta have publicly backed open models to maintain ecosystem competition. Targeted concerns over Chinese distillation and IP issues persist but favor procurement rules or entity-list measures rather than blanket prohibitions. A realistic challenge could arise from sharp US-China escalation prompting model-specific restrictions if extreme capabilities emerge.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US federal government passes legislation, issues an executive order, issues an export control, or takes any other formal action with the intent to ban distribution to, access for, or use of an open source AI model by the general public within the US, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market resolves "No".
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
“Open source AI model" refers to a general-purpose large language or multimodal foundation model whose weights and source are publicly downloadable and usable on user-controlled hardware (e.g., Llama, Mistral, DeepSeek, Qwen). "Source available" AI models will qualify regardless of any licensing restrictions on acceptable use. Narrow or special-purpose models (e.g., embedding, moderation, or single-modality media generation models) and deprecated, research-only, or preview-only models will not qualify.
To qualify, a ban must target ordinary public access to the model across ordinary public channels within the US. A ban with the intention to remove access from a single channel is not sufficient.
A qualifying ban may target a specific model or a slate of models, so long as at least one open source model is restricted.
A qualifying ban enacted or issued by the resolution date will qualify regardless of if or when it takes effect.
Both temporary bans, including those with a defined end date, and indefinite bans will qualify.
Non-binding or preliminary actions, including non-binding resolutions, recommendations, proposed or pending legislation, investigations, and hearings, will not qualify on their own.
The resolution source for this market is official information and announcements from the United States government and the maintainer or developer of the relevant open source AI model. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$5,104結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 13, 2026, 10:13 PM ETTrader consensus around a 92% implied probability of no US government ban on an open-source AI model in 2026 stems primarily from the June 2026 executive order establishing voluntary pre-release cybersecurity reviews for frontier models, without mandatory licensing or bans, alongside explicit policy exemptions for open-weight large language models in recent OMB guidance. Actions have targeted specific closed models from US labs via export controls that were later eased, while industry leaders from Nvidia, Microsoft, and Meta have publicly backed open models to maintain ecosystem competition. Targeted concerns over Chinese distillation and IP issues persist but favor procurement rules or entity-list measures rather than blanket prohibitions. A realistic challenge could arise from sharp US-China escalation prompting model-specific restrictions if extreme capabilities emerge.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions