The strong trader consensus against any Category 4 hurricane landfall in the US before 2027 reflects the advanced stage of the 2026 Atlantic season, with only weeks remaining before activity typically declines sharply after October. National Hurricane Center monitoring shows no active systems positioned for rapid intensification to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale followed by US landfall. Historical climatology indicates late-season major hurricane strikes remain infrequent, averaging well under one per year in this window, while current steering patterns and sea surface temperatures do not support the necessary development. New NOAA forecast updates could alter the outlook if an unexpected system organizes, though model consensus currently reinforces the low probability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
6% 機率
$343,304 交易量
$343,304 交易量
2026-12-31
是
6% 機率
$343,304 交易量
$343,304 交易量
2026-12-31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The strong trader consensus against any Category 4 hurricane landfall in the US before 2027 reflects the advanced stage of the 2026 Atlantic season, with only weeks remaining before activity typically declines sharply after October. National Hurricane Center monitoring shows no active systems positioned for rapid intensification to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale followed by US landfall. Historical climatology indicates late-season major hurricane strikes remain infrequent, averaging well under one per year in this window, while current steering patterns and sea surface temperatures do not support the necessary development. New NOAA forecast updates could alter the outlook if an unexpected system organizes, though model consensus currently reinforces the low probability.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
市場開放時間： Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$343,304結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETFor the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.The strong trader consensus against any Category 4 hurricane landfall in the US before 2027 reflects the advanced stage of the 2026 Atlantic season, with only weeks remaining before activity typically declines sharply after October. National Hurricane Center monitoring shows no active systems positioned for rapid intensification to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale followed by US landfall. Historical climatology indicates late-season major hurricane strikes remain infrequent, averaging well under one per year in this window, while current steering patterns and sea surface temperatures do not support the necessary development. New NOAA forecast updates could alter the outlook if an unexpected system organizes, though model consensus currently reinforces the low probability.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
交易量
$343,304結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETThe strong trader consensus against any Category 4 hurricane landfall in the US before 2027 reflects the advanced stage of the 2026 Atlantic season, with only weeks remaining before activity typically declines sharply after October. National Hurricane Center monitoring shows no active systems positioned for rapid intensification to Category 4 on the Saffir-Simpson scale followed by US landfall. Historical climatology indicates late-season major hurricane strikes remain infrequent, averaging well under one per year in this window, while current steering patterns and sea surface temperatures do not support the necessary development. New NOAA forecast updates could alter the outlook if an unexpected system organizes, though model consensus currently reinforces the low probability.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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