Below-average activity is forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, supporting the 63.5 percent market-implied odds against a Category 4 landfall before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects just 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes overall, citing weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño that is expected to boost vertical wind shear and limit intensification. Historical analogs and current sea-surface temperature patterns reinforce a below-normal season, with the probability of any major (Category 3–5) U.S. landfall estimated at only 32 percent. The National Hurricane Center began daily tropical outlooks on May 15 with no systems yet forming, and NOAA’s official seasonal forecast is due May 21. While model consensus points to reduced major-hurricane risk through the June–November window, steering patterns and rapid intensification remain sources of uncertainty that could still allow a Category 4 to reach the coast.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$327,991 交易量
$327,991 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$327,991 交易量
$327,991 交易量
2026-12-31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-average activity is forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, supporting the 63.5 percent market-implied odds against a Category 4 landfall before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects just 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes overall, citing weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño that is expected to boost vertical wind shear and limit intensification. Historical analogs and current sea-surface temperature patterns reinforce a below-normal season, with the probability of any major (Category 3–5) U.S. landfall estimated at only 32 percent. The National Hurricane Center began daily tropical outlooks on May 15 with no systems yet forming, and NOAA’s official seasonal forecast is due May 21. While model consensus points to reduced major-hurricane risk through the June–November window, steering patterns and rapid intensification remain sources of uncertainty that could still allow a Category 4 to reach the coast.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
市場開放時間： Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ET
交易量
$327,991結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.Below-average activity is forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, supporting the 63.5 percent market-implied odds against a Category 4 landfall before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects just 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes overall, citing weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño that is expected to boost vertical wind shear and limit intensification. Historical analogs and current sea-surface temperature patterns reinforce a below-normal season, with the probability of any major (Category 3–5) U.S. landfall estimated at only 32 percent. The National Hurricane Center began daily tropical outlooks on May 15 with no systems yet forming, and NOAA’s official seasonal forecast is due May 21. While model consensus points to reduced major-hurricane risk through the June–November window, steering patterns and rapid intensification remain sources of uncertainty that could still allow a Category 4 to reach the coast.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 4 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130-156 mph, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 4 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 4 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
交易量
$327,991結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 29, 2025, 6:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Below-average activity is forecast for the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season, supporting the 63.5 percent market-implied odds against a Category 4 landfall before 2027. Colorado State University’s April outlook projects just 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes overall, citing weak La Niña transitioning to El Niño that is expected to boost vertical wind shear and limit intensification. Historical analogs and current sea-surface temperature patterns reinforce a below-normal season, with the probability of any major (Category 3–5) U.S. landfall estimated at only 32 percent. The National Hurricane Center began daily tropical outlooks on May 15 with no systems yet forming, and NOAA’s official seasonal forecast is due May 21. While model consensus points to reduced major-hurricane risk through the June–November window, steering patterns and rapid intensification remain sources of uncertainty that could still allow a Category 4 to reach the coast.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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