No leads at 83% because comprehensive NASA monitoring through the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry system has identified no asteroids large enough to deliver a 10-kiloton impact energy on collision courses with Earth in 2026. Historical data show such events occur only 0.2–0.5 times annually from undetected small meteoroids, and while 2026 has seen a Q1 surge in fireballs, the largest recorded released just 0.25 kt. Close approaches by house- and car-sized objects this spring posed no risk, reinforcing trader consensus that current detection networks and orbital tracking make a qualifying strike unlikely absent an undetected fragment exceeding monitored thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
$153,550 交易量
$153,550 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$153,550 交易量
$153,550 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No leads at 83% because comprehensive NASA monitoring through the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry system has identified no asteroids large enough to deliver a 10-kiloton impact energy on collision courses with Earth in 2026. Historical data show such events occur only 0.2–0.5 times annually from undetected small meteoroids, and while 2026 has seen a Q1 surge in fireballs, the largest recorded released just 0.25 kt. Close approaches by house- and car-sized objects this spring posed no risk, reinforcing trader consensus that current detection networks and orbital tracking make a qualifying strike unlikely absent an undetected fragment exceeding monitored thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
交易量
$153,550結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.No leads at 83% because comprehensive NASA monitoring through the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry system has identified no asteroids large enough to deliver a 10-kiloton impact energy on collision courses with Earth in 2026. Historical data show such events occur only 0.2–0.5 times annually from undetected small meteoroids, and while 2026 has seen a Q1 surge in fireballs, the largest recorded released just 0.25 kt. Close approaches by house- and car-sized objects this spring posed no risk, reinforcing trader consensus that current detection networks and orbital tracking make a qualifying strike unlikely absent an undetected fragment exceeding monitored thresholds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$153,550結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...No leads at 83% because comprehensive NASA monitoring through the Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and Sentry system has identified no asteroids large enough to deliver a 10-kiloton impact energy on collision courses with Earth in 2026. Historical data show such events occur only 0.2–0.5 times annually from undetected small meteoroids, and while 2026 has seen a Q1 surge in fireballs, the largest recorded released just 0.25 kt. Close approaches by house- and car-sized objects this spring posed no risk, reinforcing trader consensus that current detection networks and orbital tracking make a qualifying strike unlikely absent an undetected fragment exceeding monitored thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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