NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and its Sentry impact-monitoring system continue to report no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ energy in 2026, with all tracked near-Earth objects showing zero significant impact risk through at least the next century. Recent safe flybys of objects such as 2026 JH2 and 1997 NC1, combined with refined orbital data from ground-based surveys and radar, have reinforced trader confidence that detection capabilities would flag any credible threat well in advance. Ongoing planetary defense observations and the absence of new high-probability candidates keep the market-implied odds for "No" elevated, though traders note that undiscovered small objects could theoretically emerge late in the year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
12% 機率
$178,873 交易量
$178,873 交易量
2026-12-31
是
12% 機率
$178,873 交易量
$178,873 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and its Sentry impact-monitoring system continue to report no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ energy in 2026, with all tracked near-Earth objects showing zero significant impact risk through at least the next century. Recent safe flybys of objects such as 2026 JH2 and 1997 NC1, combined with refined orbital data from ground-based surveys and radar, have reinforced trader confidence that detection capabilities would flag any credible threat well in advance. Ongoing planetary defense observations and the absence of new high-probability candidates keep the market-implied odds for "No" elevated, though traders note that undiscovered small objects could theoretically emerge late in the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ET
交易量
$178,873結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and its Sentry impact-monitoring system continue to report no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ energy in 2026, with all tracked near-Earth objects showing zero significant impact risk through at least the next century. Recent safe flybys of objects such as 2026 JH2 and 1997 NC1, combined with refined orbital data from ground-based surveys and radar, have reinforced trader confidence that detection capabilities would flag any credible threat well in advance. Ongoing planetary defense observations and the absence of new high-probability candidates keep the market-implied odds for "No" elevated, though traders note that undiscovered small objects could theoretically emerge late in the year.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 10 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$178,873結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 1:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies and its Sentry impact-monitoring system continue to report no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories capable of delivering 10kt+ energy in 2026, with all tracked near-Earth objects showing zero significant impact risk through at least the next century. Recent safe flybys of objects such as 2026 JH2 and 1997 NC1, combined with refined orbital data from ground-based surveys and radar, have reinforced trader confidence that detection capabilities would flag any credible threat well in advance. Ongoing planetary defense observations and the absence of new high-probability candidates keep the market-implied odds for "No" elevated, though traders note that undiscovered small objects could theoretically emerge late in the year.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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