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icon for 2027年之前的新型冠狀病毒疫情（ COVID-19 ） ？
世界·流行病

2027年之前的新型冠狀病毒疫情（ COVID-19 ） ？

icon for 2027年之前的新型冠狀病毒疫情（ COVID-19 ） ？
世界·流行病

2027年之前的新型冠狀病毒疫情（ COVID-19 ） ？

是

9% 機率
Polymarket

$245,199 交易量

是

9% 機率
Polymarket

$245,199 交易量

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Current trader consensus heavily favors no new COVID variant of concern before 2027, with the 91.5% implied probability on "No" reflecting the absence of any SARS-CoV-2 lineage meeting WHO or ECDC thresholds for elevated transmissibility, severity, or vaccine impact. As of mid-2026, circulating strains such as NB.1.8.1, XFG, and BA.3.2 remain classified only as variants under monitoring, with limited dominance and no evidence of the fitness advantages that defined prior shifts like Omicron. Health authorities continue routine genomic surveillance and have already recommended updated monovalent vaccines targeting JN.1-descendant lineages for the 2026-2027 season, underscoring proactive adaptation rather than reactive emergency measures. The short remaining timeframe through December further lowers the chance of a sudden escalation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
交易量
$245,199
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.Current trader consensus heavily favors no new COVID variant of concern before 2027, with the 91.5% implied probability on "No" reflecting the absence of any SARS-CoV-2 lineage meeting WHO or ECDC thresholds for elevated transmissibility, severity, or vaccine impact. As of mid-2026, circulating strains such as NB.1.8.1, XFG, and BA.3.2 remain classified only as variants under monitoring, with limited dominance and no evidence of the fitness advantages that defined prior shifts like Omicron. Health authorities continue routine genomic surveillance and have already recommended updated monovalent vaccines targeting JN.1-descendant lineages for the 2026-2027 season, underscoring proactive adaptation rather than reactive emergency measures. The short remaining timeframe through December further lowers the chance of a sudden escalation.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.
交易量
$245,199
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Dec 1, 2025, 4:49 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the CDC identifies a new COVID variant of concern between December 1, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The CDC's variant classification scheme can be found here: https://stacks.cdc.gov/view/cdc/107682. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the CDC.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2027年之前的新型冠狀病毒疫情（ COVID-19 ） ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "2027年前會出現新的值得關注的新冠變異株嗎？" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 9¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 9% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2027年之前的新型冠狀病毒疫情（ COVID-19 ） ？" has generated $245.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Dec 1, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2027年之前的新型冠狀病毒疫情（ COVID-19 ） ？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "2027年之前的新型冠狀病毒疫情（ COVID-19 ） ？" is "2027年前會出現新的值得關注的新冠變異株嗎？" at just 9%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "2027年之前的新型冠狀病毒疫情（ COVID-19 ） ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.