Extensive NASA CNEOS and Sentry monitoring, alongside ESA data, shows no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering 100kt TNT-equivalent impact energy in 2026. Comprehensive surveys have cataloged hazardous asteroids well in advance, with current close approaches limited to small, non-threatening bodies that burn up harmlessly. By mid-August, remaining windows for undetected large impacts have narrowed sharply. While an unforeseen long-period comet or statistical outlier remains theoretically possible, the completeness of planetary defense networks makes such events highly improbable, anchoring trader consensus on the "No" outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
4% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
4% 機率
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA CNEOS and Sentry monitoring, alongside ESA data, shows no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering 100kt TNT-equivalent impact energy in 2026. Comprehensive surveys have cataloged hazardous asteroids well in advance, with current close approaches limited to small, non-threatening bodies that burn up harmlessly. By mid-August, remaining windows for undetected large impacts have narrowed sharply. While an unforeseen long-period comet or statistical outlier remains theoretically possible, the completeness of planetary defense networks makes such events highly improbable, anchoring trader consensus on the "No" outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
市場開放時間： Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
交易量
$8,865結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Extensive NASA CNEOS and Sentry monitoring, alongside ESA data, shows no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering 100kt TNT-equivalent impact energy in 2026. Comprehensive surveys have cataloged hazardous asteroids well in advance, with current close approaches limited to small, non-threatening bodies that burn up harmlessly. By mid-August, remaining windows for undetected large impacts have narrowed sharply. While an unforeseen long-period comet or statistical outlier remains theoretically possible, the completeness of planetary defense networks makes such events highly improbable, anchoring trader consensus on the "No" outcome.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 100 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
交易量
$8,865結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 2, 2026, 2:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Extensive NASA CNEOS and Sentry monitoring, alongside ESA data, shows no known near-Earth objects on trajectories capable of delivering 100kt TNT-equivalent impact energy in 2026. Comprehensive surveys have cataloged hazardous asteroids well in advance, with current close approaches limited to small, non-threatening bodies that burn up harmlessly. By mid-August, remaining windows for undetected large impacts have narrowed sharply. While an unforeseen long-period comet or statistical outlier remains theoretically possible, the completeness of planetary defense networks makes such events highly improbable, anchoring trader consensus on the "No" outcome.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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