With the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season well advanced and no Category 5 systems currently threatening U.S. landfall, traders assign a 97.5% implied probability to no such event occurring before 2027. Official National Hurricane Center and NOAA monitoring shows typical late-season conditions, including cooling sea-surface temperatures and increasing wind shear that limit rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 strength (sustained winds exceeding 157 mph). Historical records confirm these landfalls remain rare, occurring roughly once every several years on average, with none recorded in recent seasons despite active periods. Remaining forecast windows through November offer limited time for an outlier storm to form, organize, and reach U.S. shores, though updated model runs could still shift steering patterns or intensity projections.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
3% 機率
$142,081 交易量
$142,081 交易量
2026-12-31
是
3% 機率
$142,081 交易量
$142,081 交易量
2026-12-31
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.With the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season well advanced and no Category 5 systems currently threatening U.S. landfall, traders assign a 97.5% implied probability to no such event occurring before 2027. Official National Hurricane Center and NOAA monitoring shows typical late-season conditions, including cooling sea-surface temperatures and increasing wind shear that limit rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 strength (sustained winds exceeding 157 mph). Historical records confirm these landfalls remain rare, occurring roughly once every several years on average, with none recorded in recent seasons despite active periods. Remaining forecast windows through November offer limited time for an outlier storm to form, organize, and reach U.S. shores, though updated model runs could still shift steering patterns or intensity projections.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
市場開放時間： Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ET
交易量
$142,081結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETFor the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.With the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season well advanced and no Category 5 systems currently threatening U.S. landfall, traders assign a 97.5% implied probability to no such event occurring before 2027. Official National Hurricane Center and NOAA monitoring shows typical late-season conditions, including cooling sea-surface temperatures and increasing wind shear that limit rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 strength (sustained winds exceeding 157 mph). Historical records confirm these landfalls remain rare, occurring roughly once every several years on average, with none recorded in recent seasons despite active periods. Remaining forecast windows through November offer limited time for an outlier storm to form, organize, and reach U.S. shores, though updated model runs could still shift steering patterns or intensity projections.
For the purposes of this market, a Category 5 hurricane is a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 157 mph or higher, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php, and a hurricane landfall is said to occur when the hurricane's surface center intersects with the coastline, as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml#LANDFALL.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any storm makes landfall in the conterminous United States as a Category 5 hurricane, as reported in official National Hurricane Center advisories (https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2023/IDALIA.shtml?) between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve based on the initial advisory released by the NHC for whether any storm has made landfall in the conterminous United States at Category 5 strength, regardless of any later retraction or analysis that may contradict the initial qualifying announcement. However, subsequent corrections or updates will be considered if they indicate a qualifying incident.
交易量
$142,081結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Dec 31, 2025, 12:09 PM ETWith the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season well advanced and no Category 5 systems currently threatening U.S. landfall, traders assign a 97.5% implied probability to no such event occurring before 2027. Official National Hurricane Center and NOAA monitoring shows typical late-season conditions, including cooling sea-surface temperatures and increasing wind shear that limit rapid intensification to Saffir-Simpson Category 5 strength (sustained winds exceeding 157 mph). Historical records confirm these landfalls remain rare, occurring roughly once every several years on average, with none recorded in recent seasons despite active periods. Remaining forecast windows through November offer limited time for an outlier storm to form, organize, and reach U.S. shores, though updated model runs could still shift steering patterns or intensity projections.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions