Recent monthly CPI data, including a 0.4% headline increase and 0.3% core rise in October, combined with shelter-driven price pressures and moderating energy costs, underpin the market-implied odds of 94.8% for a 3.7% annual rate. These readings align with the trajectory of prior prints and labor market conditions that have kept inflation above the Fed’s 2% target without accelerating sharply. Trader consensus reflects skin-in-the-game assessment of the data path, though the absence of a standard year-over-year figure due to last year’s data gap introduces minor calculation uncertainty. Key swing factors that could still shift outcomes include any post-release revisions to components or shifts in how markets interpret the missing prior-year baseline.