Resilient U.S. economic expansion underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2026. Second-quarter 2026 real GDP rose 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, with full-year forecasts clustered near 2.1-2.2% supported by consumer spending, AI-driven business investment, and a balanced labor market where unemployment holds near 4.4-4.5%. July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year has allowed the Federal Reserve to maintain the funds rate at 3.5-3.75%, signaling contained inflation pressures. Trader consensus, backed by real capital on Polymarket, prices limited near-term downside risk through year-end. Potential challenges include an abrupt escalation in trade barriers, geopolitical shocks, or weaker-than-expected Q3 indicators that could shift rate expectations and growth momentum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
8% 機率
$1,703,895 交易量
$1,703,895 交易量
2027-01-31
是
8% 機率
$1,703,895 交易量
$1,703,895 交易量
2027-01-31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productResilient U.S. economic expansion underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2026. Second-quarter 2026 real GDP rose 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, with full-year forecasts clustered near 2.1-2.2% supported by consumer spending, AI-driven business investment, and a balanced labor market where unemployment holds near 4.4-4.5%. July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year has allowed the Federal Reserve to maintain the funds rate at 3.5-3.75%, signaling contained inflation pressures. Trader consensus, backed by real capital on Polymarket, prices limited near-term downside risk through year-end. Potential challenges include an abrupt escalation in trade barriers, geopolitical shocks, or weaker-than-expected Q3 indicators that could shift rate expectations and growth momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
市場開放時間： Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ET
交易量
$1,703,895結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-productResilient U.S. economic expansion underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2026. Second-quarter 2026 real GDP rose 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, with full-year forecasts clustered near 2.1-2.2% supported by consumer spending, AI-driven business investment, and a balanced labor market where unemployment holds near 4.4-4.5%. July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year has allowed the Federal Reserve to maintain the funds rate at 3.5-3.75%, signaling contained inflation pressures. Trader consensus, backed by real capital on Polymarket, prices limited near-term downside risk through year-end. Potential challenges include an abrupt escalation in trade barriers, geopolitical shocks, or weaker-than-expected Q3 indicators that could shift rate expectations and growth momentum.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met:
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA).
2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026.
Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then.
The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
交易量
$1,703,895結束日期
2027-01-31市場開放時間
Sep 29, 2025, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Resilient U.S. economic expansion underpins the 92.5% market-implied probability against a recession by end-2026. Second-quarter 2026 real GDP rose 1.5% annualized, following 2.1% in Q1, with full-year forecasts clustered near 2.1-2.2% supported by consumer spending, AI-driven business investment, and a balanced labor market where unemployment holds near 4.4-4.5%. July CPI at 3.4% year-over-year has allowed the Federal Reserve to maintain the funds rate at 3.5-3.75%, signaling contained inflation pressures. Trader consensus, backed by real capital on Polymarket, prices limited near-term downside risk through year-end. Potential challenges include an abrupt escalation in trade barriers, geopolitical shocks, or weaker-than-expected Q3 indicators that could shift rate expectations and growth momentum.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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