Market-implied odds heavily favor the Bank of Japan delivering a 25 basis point rate increase at its June meeting, reflecting persistent core inflation above the 2% target and steady wage gains that have supported further policy normalization. Recent Bank of Japan communications have emphasized a data-dependent path toward higher rates while avoiding abrupt moves, with labor market tightness providing additional tailwinds. Traders assign only modest probability to no change, underscoring expectations that the central bank will continue its gradual exit from ultra-loose policy. Key upcoming releases on inflation and GDP will likely shape final positioning ahead of the decision.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於上調 25 個基點 79.8%
沒有變動 20%
提高超過50個基點 1.3%
降息 <1%
$114,871 交易量
$114,871 交易量
2026-06-16
降息
1%
沒有變動
20%
上調 25 個基點
80%
提高超過50個基點
1%
上調 25 個基點 79.8%
沒有變動 20%
提高超過50個基點 1.3%
降息 <1%
$114,871 交易量
$114,871 交易量
2026-06-16
降息
$34,145 交易量
1%
沒有變動
$28,983 交易量
20%
上調 25 個基點
$27,377 交易量
80%
提高超過50個基點
$24,366 交易量
1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds heavily favor the Bank of Japan delivering a 25 basis point rate increase at its June meeting, reflecting persistent core inflation above the 2% target and steady wage gains that have supported further policy normalization. Recent Bank of Japan communications have emphasized a data-dependent path toward higher rates while avoiding abrupt moves, with labor market tightness providing additional tailwinds. Traders assign only modest probability to no change, underscoring expectations that the central bank will continue its gradual exit from ultra-loose policy. Key upcoming releases on inflation and GDP will likely shape final positioning ahead of the decision.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ET
交易量
$114,871結束日期
2026-06-16市場開放時間
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Market-implied odds heavily favor the Bank of Japan delivering a 25 basis point rate increase at its June meeting, reflecting persistent core inflation above the 2% target and steady wage gains that have supported further policy normalization. Recent Bank of Japan communications have emphasized a data-dependent path toward higher rates while avoiding abrupt moves, with labor market tightness providing additional tailwinds. Traders assign only modest probability to no change, underscoring expectations that the central bank will continue its gradual exit from ultra-loose policy. Key upcoming releases on inflation and GDP will likely shape final positioning ahead of the decision.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for June is scheduled to be released on June 16, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's June 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$114,871結束日期
2026-06-16市場開放時間
Mar 19, 2026, 7:12 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Market-implied odds heavily favor the Bank of Japan delivering a 25 basis point rate increase at its June meeting, reflecting persistent core inflation above the 2% target and steady wage gains that have supported further policy normalization. Recent Bank of Japan communications have emphasized a data-dependent path toward higher rates while avoiding abrupt moves, with labor market tightness providing additional tailwinds. Traders assign only modest probability to no change, underscoring expectations that the central bank will continue its gradual exit from ultra-loose policy. Key upcoming releases on inflation and GDP will likely shape final positioning ahead of the decision.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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