The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 0.75 percent, despite a 6-3 vote split with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point hike, continues to anchor trader expectations for the July meeting. Elevated core CPI forecasts of 2.8 percent for fiscal 2026, driven by energy-price pressures from the Middle East conflict, have reinforced a gradual normalization path while growth projections were trimmed to 0.5 percent. With economists assigning roughly 65 percent odds to a June increase that would likely preclude further action in July, the market-implied probability of no change stands at 59 percent. Persistent uncertainty over global growth and domestic wage trends sustains a 40 percent chance of a 25-basis-point rise, reflecting the balance between inflation risks and downside economic concerns ahead of the next policy review.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於No change 59%
25 bps increase 32%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
最新
最新
2026-07-31
50+ bps decrease
2%
25 bps decrease
1%
No change
59%
25 bps increase
40%
50+ bps increase
5%
No change 59%
25 bps increase 32%
50+ bps increase 5%
50+ bps decrease 1.5%
最新
最新
2026-07-31
50+ bps decrease
$447 交易量
2%
25 bps decrease
$307 交易量
1%
No change
$20 交易量
59%
25 bps increase
$86 交易量
40%
50+ bps increase
$61 交易量
5%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 0.75 percent, despite a 6-3 vote split with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point hike, continues to anchor trader expectations for the July meeting. Elevated core CPI forecasts of 2.8 percent for fiscal 2026, driven by energy-price pressures from the Middle East conflict, have reinforced a gradual normalization path while growth projections were trimmed to 0.5 percent. With economists assigning roughly 65 percent odds to a June increase that would likely preclude further action in July, the market-implied probability of no change stands at 59 percent. Persistent uncertainty over global growth and domestic wage trends sustains a 40 percent chance of a 25-basis-point rise, reflecting the balance between inflation risks and downside economic concerns ahead of the next policy review.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ET
交易量
$921結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 0.75 percent, despite a 6-3 vote split with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point hike, continues to anchor trader expectations for the July meeting. Elevated core CPI forecasts of 2.8 percent for fiscal 2026, driven by energy-price pressures from the Middle East conflict, have reinforced a gradual normalization path while growth projections were trimmed to 0.5 percent. With economists assigning roughly 65 percent odds to a June increase that would likely preclude further action in July, the market-implied probability of no change stands at 59 percent. Persistent uncertainty over global growth and domestic wage trends sustains a 40 percent chance of a 25-basis-point rise, reflecting the balance between inflation risks and downside economic concerns ahead of the next policy review.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for July is scheduled to be released on July 31, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's July 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$921結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
Apr 28, 2026, 7:07 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Bank of Japan’s April 2026 decision to hold its policy rate steady at 0.75 percent, despite a 6-3 vote split with three members favoring an immediate 25-basis-point hike, continues to anchor trader expectations for the July meeting. Elevated core CPI forecasts of 2.8 percent for fiscal 2026, driven by energy-price pressures from the Middle East conflict, have reinforced a gradual normalization path while growth projections were trimmed to 0.5 percent. With economists assigning roughly 65 percent odds to a June increase that would likely preclude further action in July, the market-implied probability of no change stands at 59 percent. Persistent uncertainty over global growth and domestic wage trends sustains a 40 percent chance of a 25-basis-point rise, reflecting the balance between inflation risks and downside economic concerns ahead of the next policy review.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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