Traders assign a 97.5% implied probability to the Bank of Korea holding its 2.50% base rate unchanged at the May 28, 2026 meeting, reflecting the institution’s data-dependent stance following the unanimous April hold amid elevated geopolitical risks from the Iran conflict and balanced growth-inflation trade-offs. April CPI accelerated to 2.6% year-over-year on higher energy prices, exceeding the 2% target yet aligning with prior forecasts, while first-quarter GDP growth near 1.7% received support from semiconductor exports. Recent hawkish signals from Deputy Governor Ryoo Sang-dai on May 4, indicating a shift toward considering rate hikes in forward guidance, have not altered consensus given stable financial conditions and the central bank’s preference for monitoring incoming data. A hotter-than-expected May CPI release or sharper Korean won depreciation could modestly raise the slim odds of a hike before the next policy meeting.