Recent sticky inflation data, with core PCE rising to 3.3% in June 2026, and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through its July meeting have anchored trader expectations for limited near-term declines in the 10-year Treasury yield, currently trading near 4.63%. Firm labor market conditions and elevated Treasury supply continue to support yields in the 4% to 4.5% range, while markets price modest downside risks tied to potential growth slowdowns. The upcoming late-August FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases represent key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities around further yield compression before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$225,212 交易量
2026-12-31
3.9%
12%
3.8%
5%
3.7%
2%
3.6%
5%
3.5%
4%
3.0%
3%
2.0%
2%
1.0%
2%
$225,212 交易量
3.9%
$44,197 交易量
12%
3.8%
$41,312 交易量
5%
3.7%
$27,383 交易量
2%
3.6%
$5,587 交易量
5%
3.5%
$32,973 交易量
4%
3.0%
$917 交易量
3%
2.0%
$514 交易量
2%
1.0%
$40,570 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent sticky inflation data, with core PCE rising to 3.3% in June 2026, and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through its July meeting have anchored trader expectations for limited near-term declines in the 10-year Treasury yield, currently trading near 4.63%. Firm labor market conditions and elevated Treasury supply continue to support yields in the 4% to 4.5% range, while markets price modest downside risks tied to potential growth slowdowns. The upcoming late-August FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases represent key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities around further yield compression before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET
交易量
$225,212結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent sticky inflation data, with core PCE rising to 3.3% in June 2026, and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through its July meeting have anchored trader expectations for limited near-term declines in the 10-year Treasury yield, currently trading near 4.63%. Firm labor market conditions and elevated Treasury supply continue to support yields in the 4% to 4.5% range, while markets price modest downside risks tied to potential growth slowdowns. The upcoming late-August FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases represent key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities around further yield compression before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$225,212結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent sticky inflation data, with core PCE rising to 3.3% in June 2026, and the Federal Reserve's decision to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% through its July meeting have anchored trader expectations for limited near-term declines in the 10-year Treasury yield, currently trading near 4.63%. Firm labor market conditions and elevated Treasury supply continue to support yields in the 4% to 4.5% range, while markets price modest downside risks tied to potential growth slowdowns. The upcoming late-August FOMC meeting and subsequent inflation releases represent key catalysts that could shift implied probabilities around further yield compression before 2027.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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