Traders assign a 97.2% probability to no U.S. debt default by the end of 2026 because Congress has repeatedly suspended or raised the debt limit ahead of any X-date, most recently lifting it by $5 trillion in 2025. The Treasury continues to issue debt, conduct buybacks, and deploy extraordinary measures while maintaining stable outlooks from major rating agencies. These patterns reflect the political costs of default and the dollar’s reserve-currency advantages, which sustain market access even as debt approaches $40 trillion. A default before year-end would require an unprecedented failure to reach agreement in the final months of 2026, such as an extended congressional impasse coinciding with exhausted cash reserves, though scheduled fiscal deadlines leave room for last-minute resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於2027年美國債務違約？
2027年美國債務違約？
是
3% 機率
$18,051 交易量
$18,051 交易量
2026-12-30
是
3% 機率
$18,051 交易量
$18,051 交易量
2026-12-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.2% probability to no U.S. debt default by the end of 2026 because Congress has repeatedly suspended or raised the debt limit ahead of any X-date, most recently lifting it by $5 trillion in 2025. The Treasury continues to issue debt, conduct buybacks, and deploy extraordinary measures while maintaining stable outlooks from major rating agencies. These patterns reflect the political costs of default and the dollar’s reserve-currency advantages, which sustain market access even as debt approaches $40 trillion. A default before year-end would require an unprecedented failure to reach agreement in the final months of 2026, such as an extended congressional impasse coinciding with exhausted cash reserves, though scheduled fiscal deadlines leave room for last-minute resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
市場開放時間： Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
交易量
$18,051結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.Traders assign a 97.2% probability to no U.S. debt default by the end of 2026 because Congress has repeatedly suspended or raised the debt limit ahead of any X-date, most recently lifting it by $5 trillion in 2025. The Treasury continues to issue debt, conduct buybacks, and deploy extraordinary measures while maintaining stable outlooks from major rating agencies. These patterns reflect the political costs of default and the dollar’s reserve-currency advantages, which sustain market access even as debt approaches $40 trillion. A default before year-end would require an unprecedented failure to reach agreement in the final months of 2026, such as an extended congressional impasse coinciding with exhausted cash reserves, though scheduled fiscal deadlines leave room for last-minute resolution.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
交易量
$18,051結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETTraders assign a 97.2% probability to no U.S. debt default by the end of 2026 because Congress has repeatedly suspended or raised the debt limit ahead of any X-date, most recently lifting it by $5 trillion in 2025. The Treasury continues to issue debt, conduct buybacks, and deploy extraordinary measures while maintaining stable outlooks from major rating agencies. These patterns reflect the political costs of default and the dollar’s reserve-currency advantages, which sustain market access even as debt approaches $40 trillion. A default before year-end would require an unprecedented failure to reach agreement in the final months of 2026, such as an extended congressional impasse coinciding with exhausted cash reserves, though scheduled fiscal deadlines leave room for last-minute resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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