Recent opinion polls for New Zealand’s 7 November 2026 general election show National and Labour locked in a tight contest for the leading party-vote positions, with both parties hovering near 29–34 percent in August surveys from firms including 1News-Verian and Talbot Mills. This narrow margin underpins trader pricing for second place, where National holds a modest edge at 52 percent implied probability. Incumbent National’s support has fluctuated amid internal leadership scrutiny of Christopher Luxon and coalition partner volatility, while Labour has narrowed the gap but remains challenged by fragmented opposition blocs. The rise of the Opportunity Party above the 5 percent threshold in some polls further fragments smaller-party shares, keeping minor parties’ second-place odds below 1 percent. Scheduled advance voting begins in late October, leaving limited time for late shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於National Party 52%
Labour Party 42%
New Zealand First Party <1%
Te Pāti Māori <1%
$17,849 交易量
$17,849 交易量
2026-11-07
National Party
52%
Labour Party
42%
New Zealand First Party
1%
Te Pāti Māori
1%
Green Party
<1%
ACT New Zealand
<1%
National Party 52%
Labour Party 42%
New Zealand First Party <1%
Te Pāti Māori <1%
$17,849 交易量
$17,849 交易量
2026-11-07
National Party
$8,814 交易量
52%
Labour Party
$4,789 交易量
42%
New Zealand First Party
$1,262 交易量
1%
Te Pāti Māori
$1,199 交易量
1%
Green Party
$542 交易量
<1%
ACT New Zealand
$1,243 交易量
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent opinion polls for New Zealand’s 7 November 2026 general election show National and Labour locked in a tight contest for the leading party-vote positions, with both parties hovering near 29–34 percent in August surveys from firms including 1News-Verian and Talbot Mills. This narrow margin underpins trader pricing for second place, where National holds a modest edge at 52 percent implied probability. Incumbent National’s support has fluctuated amid internal leadership scrutiny of Christopher Luxon and coalition partner volatility, while Labour has narrowed the gap but remains challenged by fragmented opposition blocs. The rise of the Opportunity Party above the 5 percent threshold in some polls further fragments smaller-party shares, keeping minor parties’ second-place odds below 1 percent. Scheduled advance voting begins in late October, leaving limited time for late shifts.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
市場開放時間： Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
交易量
$17,849結束日期
2026-11-07市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent opinion polls for New Zealand’s 7 November 2026 general election show National and Labour locked in a tight contest for the leading party-vote positions, with both parties hovering near 29–34 percent in August surveys from firms including 1News-Verian and Talbot Mills. This narrow margin underpins trader pricing for second place, where National holds a modest edge at 52 percent implied probability. Incumbent National’s support has fluctuated amid internal leadership scrutiny of Christopher Luxon and coalition partner volatility, while Labour has narrowed the gap but remains challenged by fragmented opposition blocs. The rise of the Opportunity Party above the 5 percent threshold in some polls further fragments smaller-party shares, keeping minor parties’ second-place odds below 1 percent. Scheduled advance voting begins in late October, leaving limited time for late shifts.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
交易量
$17,849結束日期
2026-11-07市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent opinion polls for New Zealand’s 7 November 2026 general election show National and Labour locked in a tight contest for the leading party-vote positions, with both parties hovering near 29–34 percent in August surveys from firms including 1News-Verian and Talbot Mills. This narrow margin underpins trader pricing for second place, where National holds a modest edge at 52 percent implied probability. Incumbent National’s support has fluctuated amid internal leadership scrutiny of Christopher Luxon and coalition partner volatility, while Labour has narrowed the gap but remains challenged by fragmented opposition blocs. The rise of the Opportunity Party above the 5 percent threshold in some polls further fragments smaller-party shares, keeping minor parties’ second-place odds below 1 percent. Scheduled advance voting begins in late October, leaving limited time for late shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於相關
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
53%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55%
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
59%
Labour
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions