National leads the market for second place at 54.5% implied probability, ahead of Labour at 44.5%, as recent polling averages show the two major parties far ahead of smaller ones under New Zealand’s MMP system ahead of the November 7 election. National’s position stems from consistent electorate strength and coalition dynamics that often secure it the most or second-most seats even when party votes are close, while Labour’s support has fluctuated between the low 20s and mid-30s across Roy Morgan, 1News-Verian, and Reid Research surveys through August. Minor parties including Opportunity, New Zealand First, and the Greens remain well below levels needed to challenge the top two for second. Traders appear to price in the structural advantages of the two largest parties in seat allocation despite ongoing volatility in voter intentions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於National Party 55%
Labour Party 45%
New Zealand First Party 2.3%
ACT New Zealand <1%
$20,263 交易量
$20,263 交易量
2026-11-06
National Party
55%
Labour Party
45%
New Zealand First Party
2%
ACT New Zealand
<1%
Te Pāti Māori
<1%
Green Party
<1%
National Party 55%
Labour Party 45%
New Zealand First Party 2.3%
ACT New Zealand <1%
$20,263 交易量
$20,263 交易量
2026-11-06
National Party
$9,830 交易量
55%
Labour Party
$5,766 交易量
45%
New Zealand First Party
$1,372 交易量
2%
ACT New Zealand
$1,306 交易量
<1%
Te Pāti Māori
$1,384 交易量
<1%
Green Party
$604 交易量
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).National leads the market for second place at 54.5% implied probability, ahead of Labour at 44.5%, as recent polling averages show the two major parties far ahead of smaller ones under New Zealand’s MMP system ahead of the November 7 election. National’s position stems from consistent electorate strength and coalition dynamics that often secure it the most or second-most seats even when party votes are close, while Labour’s support has fluctuated between the low 20s and mid-30s across Roy Morgan, 1News-Verian, and Reid Research surveys through August. Minor parties including Opportunity, New Zealand First, and the Greens remain well below levels needed to challenge the top two for second. Traders appear to price in the structural advantages of the two largest parties in seat allocation despite ongoing volatility in voter intentions.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
市場開放時間： Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ET
交易量
$20,263結束日期
2026-11-07市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETA general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).National leads the market for second place at 54.5% implied probability, ahead of Labour at 44.5%, as recent polling averages show the two major parties far ahead of smaller ones under New Zealand’s MMP system ahead of the November 7 election. National’s position stems from consistent electorate strength and coalition dynamics that often secure it the most or second-most seats even when party votes are close, while Labour’s support has fluctuated between the low 20s and mid-30s across Roy Morgan, 1News-Verian, and Reid Research surveys through August. Minor parties including Opportunity, New Zealand First, and the Greens remain well below levels needed to challenge the top two for second. Traders appear to price in the structural advantages of the two largest parties in seat allocation despite ongoing volatility in voter intentions.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the second-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
交易量
$20,263結束日期
2026-11-07市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:49 PM ETNational leads the market for second place at 54.5% implied probability, ahead of Labour at 44.5%, as recent polling averages show the two major parties far ahead of smaller ones under New Zealand’s MMP system ahead of the November 7 election. National’s position stems from consistent electorate strength and coalition dynamics that often secure it the most or second-most seats even when party votes are close, while Labour’s support has fluctuated between the low 20s and mid-30s across Roy Morgan, 1News-Verian, and Reid Research surveys through August. Minor parties including Opportunity, New Zealand First, and the Greens remain well below levels needed to challenge the top two for second. Traders appear to price in the structural advantages of the two largest parties in seat allocation despite ongoing volatility in voter intentions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於相關
Will New Zealand First Party win the third-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
62%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55%
NZ election: Labour v National (% of Party List Vote)
53%
Labour
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions