Recent polling for New Zealand's November 7, 2026 general election shows National and Labour trading narrow leads around 30% each, positioning smaller parties to contest third place under the MMP system. New Zealand First and the Greens have held the strongest positions among minor parties in recent aggregates, with support typically in the 8–13% range, reflecting NZ First's coalition role and consistent voter base alongside the Greens' urban and environmental appeal. ACT and Te Pāti Māori trail further back, while the Opportunity Party's recent surge to 8% in the latest 1News-Verian survey has introduced volatility by challenging NZ First's standing. Trader consensus on these probabilities incorporates seat projections, historical minor-party performance, and the 5% threshold dynamics that shape final rankings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於New Zealand First Party 53%
Green Party 37%
ACT New Zealand 1.6%
National Party 1.2%
$13,021 交易量
$13,021 交易量
2026-11-07
New Zealand First Party
53%
Green Party
37%
ACT New Zealand
2%
National Party
1%
Te Pāti Māori
<1%
Labour Party
<1%
New Zealand First Party 53%
Green Party 37%
ACT New Zealand 1.6%
National Party 1.2%
$13,021 交易量
$13,021 交易量
2026-11-07
New Zealand First Party
$4,805 交易量
53%
Green Party
$5,260 交易量
37%
ACT New Zealand
$702 交易量
2%
National Party
$415 交易量
1%
Te Pāti Māori
$774 交易量
<1%
Labour Party
$1,065 交易量
<1%
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling for New Zealand's November 7, 2026 general election shows National and Labour trading narrow leads around 30% each, positioning smaller parties to contest third place under the MMP system. New Zealand First and the Greens have held the strongest positions among minor parties in recent aggregates, with support typically in the 8–13% range, reflecting NZ First's coalition role and consistent voter base alongside the Greens' urban and environmental appeal. ACT and Te Pāti Māori trail further back, while the Opportunity Party's recent surge to 8% in the latest 1News-Verian survey has introduced volatility by challenging NZ First's standing. Trader consensus on these probabilities incorporates seat projections, historical minor-party performance, and the 5% threshold dynamics that shape final rankings.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
市場開放時間： Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ET
交易量
$13,021結束日期
2026-11-07市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).Recent polling for New Zealand's November 7, 2026 general election shows National and Labour trading narrow leads around 30% each, positioning smaller parties to contest third place under the MMP system. New Zealand First and the Greens have held the strongest positions among minor parties in recent aggregates, with support typically in the 8–13% range, reflecting NZ First's coalition role and consistent voter base alongside the Greens' urban and environmental appeal. ACT and Te Pāti Māori trail further back, while the Opportunity Party's recent surge to 8% in the latest 1News-Verian survey has introduced volatility by challenging NZ First's standing. Trader consensus on these probabilities incorporates seat projections, historical minor-party performance, and the 5% threshold dynamics that shape final rankings.
A general election is scheduled to be held in New Zealand on November 7, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third-greatest number of seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives as a result of this election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by October 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The named parties or coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more parties are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid party list votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If parties remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed party name. This market will resolve to the party that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the New Zealand House of Representatives in this election.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by New Zealand government sources such as the New Zealand Electoral Commission (https://elections.nz/).
交易量
$13,021結束日期
2026-11-07市場開放時間
Apr 29, 2026, 7:51 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent polling for New Zealand's November 7, 2026 general election shows National and Labour trading narrow leads around 30% each, positioning smaller parties to contest third place under the MMP system. New Zealand First and the Greens have held the strongest positions among minor parties in recent aggregates, with support typically in the 8–13% range, reflecting NZ First's coalition role and consistent voter base alongside the Greens' urban and environmental appeal. ACT and Te Pāti Māori trail further back, while the Opportunity Party's recent surge to 8% in the latest 1News-Verian survey has introduced volatility by challenging NZ First's standing. Trader consensus on these probabilities incorporates seat projections, historical minor-party performance, and the 5% threshold dynamics that shape final rankings.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於相關
Will National Party win the second-most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
54%
Will Labour Party win the most seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
55%
Will the National Party win 40-44 seats in the New Zealand House of Representatives in the 2026 New Zealand legislative election?
35%
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions