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icon for 哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？
選舉·美國大選

哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？

icon for 哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？
選舉·美國大選

哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？

Polymarket

$2,335,685 交易量

Polymarket

$2,335,685 交易量

icon for 民主黨

民主黨

$1,161,838 交易量

65%

icon for 共和黨

共和黨

$1,173,847 交易量

35%

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus assigns Democrats a 64.5% implied probability of winning the 2028 presidential election, ahead of Republicans at 34.5%. This positioning stems primarily from the current Republican administration's low approval ratings near 38% and voter dissatisfaction with economic conditions, including elevated prices tied to tariffs and disruptions from the conflict with Iran. Recent polling shows Democrats holding a roughly nine-point generic ballot advantage ahead of the November 2026 midterms, with Republicans forced to defend competitive seats amid these headwinds. Prediction markets incorporate these trends as signals of potential shifts in congressional control and long-term party positioning, while also accounting for the wide-open Democratic primary field and the extended timeline before 2028 voting. Late developments such as economic data releases or foreign policy shifts could still alter these assessments.

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
交易量
$2,335,685
結束日期
2028-11-07
市場開放時間
Jul 18, 2025, 1:27 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.Trader consensus assigns Democrats a 64.5% implied probability of winning the 2028 presidential election, ahead of Republicans at 34.5%. This positioning stems primarily from the current Republican administration's low approval ratings near 38% and voter dissatisfaction with economic conditions, including elevated prices tied to tariffs and disruptions from the conflict with Iran. Recent polling shows Democrats holding a roughly nine-point generic ballot advantage ahead of the November 2026 midterms, with Republicans forced to defend competitive seats amid these headwinds. Prediction markets incorporate these trends as signals of potential shifts in congressional control and long-term party positioning, while also accounting for the wide-open Democratic primary field and the extended timeline before 2028 voting. Late developments such as economic data releases or foreign policy shifts could still alter these assessments.

The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028.

This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.The 2028 United States presidential election will be held on Tuesday, November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the political party whose candidate is elected the next President of the United States in the 2028 election. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same party. If all three sources haven’t called the race for the same party by the inauguration date (January 20, 2029) this market will resolve based on who is inaugurated.
交易量
$2,335,685
結束日期
2028-11-07
市場開放時間
Jul 18, 2025, 1:27 PM ET

結算方

0x2F5e3684c...

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "民主黨" at 65%, followed by "共和黨" at 35%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 65¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？" has generated $2.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jul 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？" is "民主黨" at 65%, meaning the market assigns a 65% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "共和黨" at 35%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "哪個政黨贏得2028年美國總統選舉？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.